Director Pedro Almodovar with "Volver" stars Penelope Cruz and Carmen Maura. (Juan Gatti/Sony Pictures Classics) |
If members of the New York Film Critics Circle voted today for their awards, "Volver" would probably win best picture, director (Pedro Almodovar) and actress (Penelope Cruz, fending off a devilish challenge from Meryl Streep). The lead actor race is a three-way toss-up between Forest Whitaker ("Last King of Scotland"), Peter O'Toole ("Venus") and Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson").
Those forecasts are based upon early chats with many NYFCC circle members, plus analysis offered by some savvy circle-watchers.
"'Volver' has a strong choice to win best picture," notes circle member Dennis Lim of the Village Voice. "Almost everyone in the circle likes him a lot. He's very good with the press, a great schmoozer."
"Pedro appreciates the press and loves attention from us," adds Thelma Adams of Us Weekly.
Although widely admired within the circle, Almodovar has never won best picture or director, only the prize for best foreign film (three times): "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown," "Bad Education" and "All About My Mother."
The L.A. Film Critics Association, by contrast, voted him best director of 2002, but "Talk to Her" had to settle for best foreign film; the top pic prize went to "About Schmidt."
The National Society of Film Critics has never given anything to Pedro or his critically acclaimed pix, but that's not a surprise considering its most powerful members (the ones who keep voting on later ballots after nonpresent proxies fall off) are the same folks in the New York Film Critics Circle who've been pretty stingy to him, too.
Thelma Adams names "Volver" one of her two fave films of the years so far -- the other is "Last King of Scotland." Jack Mathews of the New York Daily News cites "Volver" and "Pan's Labyrinth" as his top 2 of 2006 at this point. It's clear that it has widespread support in the circle.
"'Volver' is the one movie I hear the most about from circle members," says Michael Zam, a screenwriter and New York University professor who's studied the circle closely through the years. "It's one drawback in the best picture race is that the circle hasn't named a foreign-language film since 1974. It's hard to imagine them doing it again while they have a separate category for foreign films."
In the race for best actress, Penelope may experience tough competition from Meryl Streep, a New Yorker who used to be a frequent winner ("Kramer vs. Kramer," "Sophie's Choice," "A Cry in the Dark"). It's been nearly 20 years since her last victory, though, so most of the current NYFCC members haven't met her at one of their bashes. That's what influences their voting the most: who they want to meet.
They might give Streep new love this year because she skewers evil Manhattan editors (who resemble their own bosses) in "The Devil Wears Prada." But rumor has it the group is ruled by guys who prefer meeting the sexiest possibility. If true, that would probably be Cruz.
In terms of lead-actor perfs, Forest Whitaker's work in "Scotland" commands the most critical respect, but NYFCC may opt for Peter O'Toole ("Venus").
"Voters like to pick people who they've always admired and get them to their awards bash," says Stephen Garrett, a contributor to Esquire and former film editor of Time Out New York who's studied the circle in depth. "They know that this is probably the last chance they'll get to hang out with O'Toole." But that's not guaranteed. O'Toole bowed out of the Toronto film fest at the last minute because of some "gastric nasties." Voters know that and are aware that they'd be taking of risk by picking him.
They might end up with an empty chair on awards night that could've been filled by Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson"). "I hear a lot of gushing over him in the circle," Garrett says. "There's a lot of high praise centered around his performance."
"Ryan Gosling is this year's hot Young Turk," adds Zam. "He's an actor people have been waiting to fulfill his promise since he played a Jewish Nazi in 'The Believer.' Circle members look at him like a young Brando or James Dean. He's that young, cool guy they wish they could be. Remember, Heath Ledger won last year for 'Brokeback Mountain.'"
The New Yorkers haven't yet announced which day they'll vote, but since they usually prefer a Monday in early December (members with staff jobs thus get time away from the office), it'll probably be on the 11th. That means that the Los Angelenos (who prefer weekend days) will probably vote on the 9th and stay out in front of the New Yorkers.
Sometimes the New Yorkers announce a Monday date, wait for the Los Angeles to pick the Saturday two days earlier, then make a last-minute jump ahead one week so they can be out in front, but that's unlikely this year given how the calendar falls.
It's doubtful that the Californians would vote as late as the 16th. Assuming they stick with the 9th, then the only way the New Yorkers can sneak ahead is by picking the 4th, which is so early that it's actually two days prior to the National Board of Review. That ain't gonna happen.
Who they vote for may not seem relevant in terms of the big derby considering how seldom the circle's awards have agreed with the Oscars. In the past 20 years, they chose the same best picture only three times, for example: "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," "Schindler's List" and "The Silence of the Lambs." But "Lambs" owes its Oscar sweep to the circle. There's no way a blockbuster horror flick could've won best pic without receiving the critics' permission to take it seriously first (no other spookfest has pulled it off).
That's what the NYFCC does best -- push new ponies into the derby. Like Marcia Gay Harden ("Pollock"), who owes her Oscar to circle voters. And Sally Field, TV's former Flying Nun, who suddenly took off in the best actress race of 1979 when the Gotham critics took a flier on her. Sally ended up accepting their prize, thunderstruck, saying, "The New York critics' award is more important than anything except my children!"
Of course, that was before Sally found out how much Oscar voters really, really liked her.
Much of these early NYFCC guesses will change as this year's derby continues to unfold, of course, but, meantime, it's fun spotting who's out front at this point. And, let's face it, you can never really guess who'll cross the finish line.
Who could've foreseen a key moment that occurred, unnoticed, at the 2001 voting conclave when it looked like Maggie Smith would probably win best supporting actress for "Gosford Park." Then one voter looked over the shoulder of another and spied "Helen Mirren, 'Gosford Park'" written out on that ballot instead.
"Hmmm!" thought the snooping spy. "Fascinating! Hadn't thought of her! I think I'll vote for Mirren, too!"
That critic switched and thus helped to build support for Mirren, who ended up winning a few ballots later. Her NYFCC victory resulted in an Oscar nomination she probably would not have reaped without it. Maggie Smith got nommed, too. Both lost to Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind").
Tom O'Neil is columnist of the Gold Derby blog on "The Envelope."
Those forecasts are based upon early chats with many NYFCC circle members, plus analysis offered by some savvy circle-watchers.
"'Volver' has a strong choice to win best picture," notes circle member Dennis Lim of the Village Voice. "Almost everyone in the circle likes him a lot. He's very good with the press, a great schmoozer."
"Pedro appreciates the press and loves attention from us," adds Thelma Adams of Us Weekly.
Although widely admired within the circle, Almodovar has never won best picture or director, only the prize for best foreign film (three times): "Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown," "Bad Education" and "All About My Mother."
The L.A. Film Critics Association, by contrast, voted him best director of 2002, but "Talk to Her" had to settle for best foreign film; the top pic prize went to "About Schmidt."
The National Society of Film Critics has never given anything to Pedro or his critically acclaimed pix, but that's not a surprise considering its most powerful members (the ones who keep voting on later ballots after nonpresent proxies fall off) are the same folks in the New York Film Critics Circle who've been pretty stingy to him, too.
Thelma Adams names "Volver" one of her two fave films of the years so far -- the other is "Last King of Scotland." Jack Mathews of the New York Daily News cites "Volver" and "Pan's Labyrinth" as his top 2 of 2006 at this point. It's clear that it has widespread support in the circle.
"'Volver' is the one movie I hear the most about from circle members," says Michael Zam, a screenwriter and New York University professor who's studied the circle closely through the years. "It's one drawback in the best picture race is that the circle hasn't named a foreign-language film since 1974. It's hard to imagine them doing it again while they have a separate category for foreign films."
In the race for best actress, Penelope may experience tough competition from Meryl Streep, a New Yorker who used to be a frequent winner ("Kramer vs. Kramer," "Sophie's Choice," "A Cry in the Dark"). It's been nearly 20 years since her last victory, though, so most of the current NYFCC members haven't met her at one of their bashes. That's what influences their voting the most: who they want to meet.
They might give Streep new love this year because she skewers evil Manhattan editors (who resemble their own bosses) in "The Devil Wears Prada." But rumor has it the group is ruled by guys who prefer meeting the sexiest possibility. If true, that would probably be Cruz.
In terms of lead-actor perfs, Forest Whitaker's work in "Scotland" commands the most critical respect, but NYFCC may opt for Peter O'Toole ("Venus").
"Voters like to pick people who they've always admired and get them to their awards bash," says Stephen Garrett, a contributor to Esquire and former film editor of Time Out New York who's studied the circle in depth. "They know that this is probably the last chance they'll get to hang out with O'Toole." But that's not guaranteed. O'Toole bowed out of the Toronto film fest at the last minute because of some "gastric nasties." Voters know that and are aware that they'd be taking of risk by picking him.
They might end up with an empty chair on awards night that could've been filled by Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson"). "I hear a lot of gushing over him in the circle," Garrett says. "There's a lot of high praise centered around his performance."
"Ryan Gosling is this year's hot Young Turk," adds Zam. "He's an actor people have been waiting to fulfill his promise since he played a Jewish Nazi in 'The Believer.' Circle members look at him like a young Brando or James Dean. He's that young, cool guy they wish they could be. Remember, Heath Ledger won last year for 'Brokeback Mountain.'"
The New Yorkers haven't yet announced which day they'll vote, but since they usually prefer a Monday in early December (members with staff jobs thus get time away from the office), it'll probably be on the 11th. That means that the Los Angelenos (who prefer weekend days) will probably vote on the 9th and stay out in front of the New Yorkers.
Sometimes the New Yorkers announce a Monday date, wait for the Los Angeles to pick the Saturday two days earlier, then make a last-minute jump ahead one week so they can be out in front, but that's unlikely this year given how the calendar falls.
It's doubtful that the Californians would vote as late as the 16th. Assuming they stick with the 9th, then the only way the New Yorkers can sneak ahead is by picking the 4th, which is so early that it's actually two days prior to the National Board of Review. That ain't gonna happen.
Who they vote for may not seem relevant in terms of the big derby considering how seldom the circle's awards have agreed with the Oscars. In the past 20 years, they chose the same best picture only three times, for example: "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," "Schindler's List" and "The Silence of the Lambs." But "Lambs" owes its Oscar sweep to the circle. There's no way a blockbuster horror flick could've won best pic without receiving the critics' permission to take it seriously first (no other spookfest has pulled it off).
That's what the NYFCC does best -- push new ponies into the derby. Like Marcia Gay Harden ("Pollock"), who owes her Oscar to circle voters. And Sally Field, TV's former Flying Nun, who suddenly took off in the best actress race of 1979 when the Gotham critics took a flier on her. Sally ended up accepting their prize, thunderstruck, saying, "The New York critics' award is more important than anything except my children!"
Of course, that was before Sally found out how much Oscar voters really, really liked her.
Much of these early NYFCC guesses will change as this year's derby continues to unfold, of course, but, meantime, it's fun spotting who's out front at this point. And, let's face it, you can never really guess who'll cross the finish line.
Who could've foreseen a key moment that occurred, unnoticed, at the 2001 voting conclave when it looked like Maggie Smith would probably win best supporting actress for "Gosford Park." Then one voter looked over the shoulder of another and spied "Helen Mirren, 'Gosford Park'" written out on that ballot instead.
"Hmmm!" thought the snooping spy. "Fascinating! Hadn't thought of her! I think I'll vote for Mirren, too!"
That critic switched and thus helped to build support for Mirren, who ended up winning a few ballots later. Her NYFCC victory resulted in an Oscar nomination she probably would not have reaped without it. Maggie Smith got nommed, too. Both lost to Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind").
Tom O'Neil is columnist of the Gold Derby blog on "The Envelope."
