But there's another savage best picture threat lurking in ancient wilderness, too: "King Kong." Don't assume that a popcorn fantasy can't get a grip on the best picture prize.

Director Peter Jackson's "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" reigns as the biggest undefeated champ in Oscar history, and many of its craftsmen provided the muscle behind "Kong."

True, Oscar voters don't usually nominate blockbusters for best picture these days, but they used to do it all time. Remember "Airport?" "The Towering Inferno?" "Jaws?" Maybe Jackson could usher in the "The Return of the King Kong."

Speaking of reigning award winners, a screen adaptation of the biggest champ in Tony history, "The Producers" (12 trophies) may compete for best picture just three years after "Chicago" proved that musicals are alive and high-kicking. ("The Producers" already carries an Oscar pedigree: the Broadway tuner was based upon a 1968 film that won Mel Brooks an Academy Award for best screenplay.)

What's so intriguing about the possibility of "The Producers" following in the footsteps (or is that dance steps?) of "Chicago" is that its story appeals to the same sinister side of Hollywood denizens.

In "Chicago," the characters were singing and dancing about getting away with murder. In "The Producers," they're scheming to make millions off of a showbiz flop. Hmmm -- automatic best picture nominee? Probably at the Golden Globes because if "The Producers" is successful, there's a special category just for musicals and comedies.

That's good news for "Rent," too, another Tony champ being brought to the screen with much of its original cast.

Elsewhere, "Walk the Line," the biopic-with-music about the romance of Johnny Cash and June Carter has strong early buzz and great advance reviews. Its shot at a best picture bid will be bolstered by the fact that its stars, Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, are in good shape to land nominations for best actor and actress.

Jake Gyllenhaal stars in two films competing to be hailed as the year's best. In "Brokeback Mountain"--directed by Ang Lee, who's helmed two past best picture nominees ("Sense and Sensibility," "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon") -- Gyllenhaal portrays a gay cowboy whose heart has been lasooed by Heath Ledger.

And in "Jarhead," Gyllenhaal stars as a gung-ho Marine who becomes disillusioned with military service when the U.S. launches the first Gulf War. The film is directed by Sam Mendes, whose "American Beauty" swept the Oscars in 1999.

Of course, past Oscar performance is often a key to determining what films will play starring roles at future Academy Awards. That means "Syriana" may loom large, since it's penned by Stephen Gaghan, the Oscar-winning screenwriter of 2000 best picture contender "Traffic."

"Syriana" stars Clooney as a career CIA operative who uncovers international intrigue by corporate oil titans. It's only a supporting role, which is also true of his appearance as a TV news producer in another best picture rival, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

That film may actually have a better shot at the top Oscar nomination, thanks to Clooney's role behind the camera. He directed and co-wrote the dramatization of Edward R. Murrow's historic clash with Commie-hunting senator Joe McCarthy.

Voters have a special fondness for actors-turned-directors, especially when they're hunky stars like Robert Redford ("Ordinary People"), Mel Gibson ("Braveheart"), Kevin Costner ("Dances with Wolves") and Clint Eastwood ("Unforgiven," "Million Dollar Baby").

That same thinking could help Tommy Lee Jones, whose "The Three of Burials of Melquiades Estrada" won best actor for Jones and best screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival in May. This intense tale, about a Texas rancher seeking revenge against a U.S. border guard who killed his Mexican pal, was also a huge hit at the Toronto Film Festival.

Toronto was also the scene of breakout critical praise for another art-house film that could crack the best picture race if it gets a boost from the film critics' awards: "Capote." According to scores at Metacritic.com, the drama about Truman Capote's writing of "In Cold Blood" is the best-reviewed film of the year so far. Not far behind is "The History of Violence," which could end up with a stranglehold on a best picture prize from the New York or Los Angeles journos.

Also bolstered by strong reviews is "North Country," starring former Oscar winner Charlize Theron as a fed-up miner who championed the court case that determined America's legal policy on sexual harassment in the workplace.

Both will be competing against an art-house fave that defied box-office projections this year: "Crash." That film hung on at theaters month after month to reap more than $50 million. Now it's out on DVD and its studio is driving hard for academy voters to give it a best picture bid.

Curiously, "Crash" could compete against a film that also came out early and was considered a box-office flop. Although "Cinderella Man" grossed $61 million, making it one of the highest-grossing dramas of the year, the film's Russell Crowe-Ron Howard pedigree made for bigger expectations. But don't count out the story about a Depression Era boxer, especially if it can land heavyweight DVD results.

These films take on another top-grossing drama, "The Constant Gardener," which got early momentum in the race by being released in late August.

Hoping to leap into the race at the end of the year is "Match Point," Woody Allen's big comeback hit about a sexy tennis pro who marries well but can't stop swinging his racket. Wily Woody wasn't taken seriously in the 1977 derby because "Annie Hall" was released early in the year, but he ended up pulling off a serious upset with his comedy.