If nominated, Gyllenhaal could face off against his "Brokeback Mountain" costar, Heath Ledger, the object of his romantic longing as a fellow cowboy stuck in the cold Wyoming mountains in the 1960s.

A rumbling volcano of deeply felt anguish, Ledger's cowpoke is what makes "Mountain" such a towering achievement. But there's some question about the box office viability of the film because of its subject matter — and yes, academy voters do care about theater receipts, too.

Ledger has another film due out in December — "Casanova" — in which he shows off his scope as an actor, playing a swashbuckling seducer of Venetian lovelies in this period piece.

His "Casanova" role is a lighthearted romp that could land Ledger a bid as best comedy/musical actor at the Golden Globes, where he has a strong shot at a nomination in the drama category, too, thanks to "Brokeback Mountain."

But beware: there's a similar hedonist role lurking in the drama race — Johnny Depp as "The Libertine," a 17th century British cad who stops chasing skirts and swilling wine only long enough to spout the occasional poem.

Depp's daredevil role is similar to his turn in "Pirates of the Caribbean," which earned him bids at both the Globes and Oscars.

Also competing with two lead roles is Ralph Fiennes, who's a British diplomat searching for his wife's killer in "The Constant Gardener" and a blind Yankee diplomat who befriends a Russian refugee in "The White Countess."

Nominated twice for Oscars and Globes in the past, Fiennes continues to be of interest to award voters. But his cool British reserve may be an emotional handicap when competing against more flamboyant performers.

No performer among this year's contenders may be flashier than Nathan Lane, who plays a shyster financier and seducer of old ladies in "The Producers." This twisted tuner about showbiz sleaziness could appeal to the industry's wicked nature, much as past best picture champ "Chicago" did just a few years ago.

Musicals tend to do especially well at the Globes, which could give "Producers," Lane and costars Matthew Broderick and Uma Thurman bumps toward the Oscars.

And don't forget about Russell Crowe, who hasn't given up hope that "Cinderella Man" still has awards punch. Many observers say Crowe threw away his chances when he threw that phone at a hotel clerk in Manhattan. But others insist that while this former best actor champ may be down, he's never out.

It'll be interesting to see how award voters regard the violence on screen in other cases, particularly with regard to Viggo Mortensen, who portrays a diner owner and family man whose secret past comes back to haunt him in "A History of Violence."

Academy members tend to spurn violent topics, but "History" will likely do well with the early awards bestowed by film critics in New York and Los Angeles, thus hiking its chances.

Ditto for the gritty turn by Terrence Howard as a pimp who strives desperately to become a rap artist in "Hustle & Flow." Howard pulls off the impossible in the role: he makes the pimp sympathetic and makes you believe the character has real rapper talent.

Audiences can't resist cheering him on, just like film critics who have been hailing his performance as one of the year's best. The question is: will squeamish academy voters agree? It's a great opportunity for them to shed their out-of-touch rep and dramatically up their hip factor.

But they may prefer to embrace the portrayal of a different, defiant wordsmith — Truman Capote, captured with spooky, aching accuracy by Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote."

Hoffman is the fave to win one or more of the kudos bestowed by the three leading critics groups: the National Society of Film Critics, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and New York Film Critics Circle; but he's been out front for so long that fickle voters could switch allegiance in the derby's home stretch.

If that's the case, expect them to opt for Tommy Lee Jones as a Texas rancher who seeks revenge on a U.S. border guard for killing his Mexican pal in "The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada," which earned Jones best actor honors at the Cannes Film Festival in May.

Jones is positioning his movie for a late dash, just like "Million Dollar Baby" did last year. The film opens only for a limited run in New York and Los Angeles in December, before going wide about a month before Oscars.

That could hurt Jones with the early critics' and guild awards, which matters because Jones is a strong contender for a DGA nomination: "Three Burials" marks his directorial debut.

Being the film's director will help him a lot at the Oscars, where actors comprise the largest voting bloc. As everyone knows, what all actors really want to is direct. That's why they may champion one of their own who has handled both chores well. Remember, Jones won the best supporting actor Oscar for "The Fugitive" in 1993.

Critics are hailing Jeff Daniels' artsy turn as a failed father, hubby and novelist in "The Squid and the Whale," which could benefit from journalists' widely known fondness for heavy-handed literary allusions. "Squid" is loaded with more references to Kafka and Salinger than a yearlong honors English course at college.

Pop culture is doled out Top 40-style in "Breakfast on Pluto," which serves up a feast of 1960s and 1970s tunes (Van Morrison to Dusty Springfield) to underscore the tale of a transvestite cabaret performer. Critics are wowed by Cillian Murphy, who hopes to have the same awards luck as the star of another gender bender by Neil Jordan, "The Crying Game." Jaye Davidson was nommed for an Oscar and BAFTA award.

Critics and voters have a warm spot for snarkiness, so they'll surely be thrilled to welcome back Woody Allen with "Match Point," which may be a strong contender for best picture 28 years after Woody won the top prize for "Annie Hall."

Allen doesn't assume the lead role this time. That goes to a sly, sexy new contender for best actor, Jonathan Rhys-Meyers, as a former tennis pro who marries rich but suffers from his backhanded shenanigans. If Allen hits this one over the best picture net, Rhys-Meyers could go along with him.