Slim and done

For the second year in a row, the academy has thumbed its collective nose at the movie-going public, nominating the least popular crop of best picture nominees on record.

This year's best picture nominees are largely dark, somber affairs with pretensions to political or social insight. In other words, they're no fun. And they're certainly not the kind of movies the public will rally behind in the weeks before Oscar night.

Ostensibly, the Academy Awards are meant to honor the past year's cinematic achievements. Even though 2005 was a sorry year for the movies, there were still more celebratory choices for the academy, which would have made Oscar appear less out of touch.

Not that the academy should pander to the public, but they could have at least thrown a bone to "Walk the Line." Snubbed for best picture, the crowd pleaser was the only contender to gross more than $100 million. And, though dark, it was the only one with verve.

With $51 million in the till through Jan. 29, "Brokeback Mountain" has been mighty impressive, considering its subject matter and humble origins. Still, the languid cowboy love story is a long way from being considered a theatrical phenomenon.

"Crash," which is on DVD and hence won't see a box office spike, was the highest-grossing picture of the lot at nomination time, with a $53.4 million total. Though the low-budget drama performed above expectations last summer, it still ranks 48th among 2005 releases.

"Munich" has been a bust with $40.6 million thus far, while "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Capote" have done well for specialty releases, grossing $25.1 million and $15.3 million respectively.

Combined, the best picture nominees have made $185.5 million, 10% less than 2004's lot at the same point. And last year's group represented a 68% drop from the previous year.

The Academy Awards are a beacon for the industry, and last year's nominees were a sign of the dismal results to come. The business took a 6% hit in 2005 — the first drop-off in annual box office since 1991.

Judging by the current batch of best picture candidates, the outlook for 2006 may be even glummer.

If there's any bright side, it's that this year's collective Oscar-fueled bump in business should be higher than the norm in the next month. Of course, that's largely because so few moviegoers have actually seen the nominees.

The period between nomination day and the Oscar telecast is when these pictures make their money. Away from the hype of the moment, interest wanes — for instance, an average Oscar-bolstered picture will make significantly less in home video receipts than a normal movie that grossed the same amount at the box office.

Universal had the right idea last year when the studio released "Ray" on DVD when Oscar nominations were announced, capitalizing on the hype when little theatrical upside remained.

Front-runner "Brokeback Mountain" is perhaps the most resonant film, because it focuses on universal themes of love and repression and not on politics. It will soon be the highest-grossing nominee, and it's the only one of the bunch with the potential to cross the $100 million mark.

"Capote" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" could conceivably top "Brokeback" in terms of percentage gain between now and Oscar night, but only because their current grosses are a fraction of those for "Brokeback."

Both "Good Night, and Good Luck" and "Capote" are scheduled to expand to 800-plus theaters on Friday. "Good Night, and Good Luck" had previously reached the 800 range, so the expansion is more significant for "Capote," which, until now had peaked with a theater count of 348.

Also this weekend, "Brokeback Mountain" will make its way to more than 2,000 venues, while the faded "Munich" has lined up a slight increase to over 1,100 theaters.