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Brandon Gray is the founder, president and publisher of Box Office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com), an online movie publication and box office tracking service. His weekly analysis of box office results and the awards races will appear every Wednesday on The Envelope.
Box Office Analysis

Where's the beef?

So far, this year's best picture contenders are looking mighty lean at the cineplex.
By Brandon Gray
December 27, 2005
Oscar wannabes found themselves in a state of limbo over the long Christmas weekend, with some floundering, others faltering and no film staking out a strong position.

Of course, when Christmas lands on a Sunday, the weekend is usually muted and studios spend the following week hoping for a rebound.

And while that's certainly the case again this year, even best picture hopefuls that have managed to find a larger audience still face a hard question: will their box office performance be enough to win over over Academy voters?

"King Kong" remained the big attraction, falling a reasonable 34 percent and pulling in $33.3 million over the four-day weekend. But that follows a disappointing opening for Peter Jackson's $207-million remake of the 1933 classic.

In 12 days, "Kong" has captured $120.6 million, a figure that is lackluster relative to its own budget, pedigree and chest-pounding. Since it's not an overwhelmingly popular picture, it will make it hard for the Academy to ignore the movie's flaws.

"Kong" was nearly overshadowed by box office runner-up "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe." In its third weekend, the C.S. Lewis fantasy claimed $31.7 million, with a drop of next to nothing from the previous week, and has amassed $165.1 million in 17 days.

"Brokeback Mountain," the picture that seemed like the sure frontrunner, more than tripled its theater count to 217. But its four-day gross was only slightly higher than last weekend's three-day tally.

Ang Lee's cowboy love story averaged a bustling $13,599 per site, which was little more than a third of last weekend's average. The picture's first two weeks were clearly bolstered by strategic locations that would be most receptive to its subject matter. It's been much less of a force as it moseyed into the suburbs.

Distributor Focus Features plans to let "Brokeback Mountain" percolate in its current locations before the next significant expansion on Jan. 6, when it will roll into 80 new markets and lift its theater count to the 400 range.

After spending two weeks in limited release in the shadow of "Brokeback Mountain," "Memoirs of a Geisha" emerged nationwide and drew a solid $10.2 million from 1,547 venues over the long weekend.

Like "Kong," Sony's $85-million period piece may not be successful enough to change perceptions that the movie itself is weak. Two years ago, "Cold Mountain" also met with a chilly critical reception and found itself shut out of Best Picture. And "Cold Mountain" opened bigger than "Geisha."

Steven Spielberg's "Munich" was another picture trying to reverse a backlash after an inconsistent "let the movie speak for itself" marketing approach.

Opening at 532 theaters, the murky $70-million drama about the aftermath of the terrorist attack at the 1972 Munich Olympics delivered $6 million over the four-day weekend, averaging $11,355 per theater.

By comparison, the last Spielberg picture to start on a limited basis, "Amistad," reported $4.6 million from 322 sites on a three-day weekend in December 1997. Ticket prices were much lower then, so "Amistad" actually sold more tickets at fewer theaters than "Munich" over a shorter timeframe.

"Amistad" failed to land a Best Picture nomination and ended its run as one of Spielberg's lowest grossing pictures.

Still, it wasn't a bad start for "Munich," which has been enjoying a critical rebound. But the verdict is still out for the picture once considered a frontrunner.

"Munich" will need to show greater commercial success in the next two weeks, especially starting Jan. 6, when distributor Universal Pictures will launch it nationwide.

Also debuting or expanding to soft or mixed results were "The Producers," "Casanova" and "The White Countess."





How recent Christmas openers fared at the Oscars
Title Studio Opening Weekend Theater Count Total Gross Oscars (wins / noms)
The Phantom of the Opera (2004) Warner Bros. $4,001,890 622 $51,234,413 0 / 3
Hotel Rwanda (2004) MGM $100,091 7 $23,530,892 0 / 3
Cold Mountain (2003) Miramax $14,574,213 2,163 $95,636,509 1 / 7
Catch Me If You Can (2002) DreamWorks $30,053,627 3,156 $164,615,351 0 / 2
Chicago (2002) Miramax $2,074,929 77 $170,687,518 6 / 13
The Hours (2002) Paramount $338,622 11 $41,675,994 1 / 9
The Pianist (2002) Focus $111,261 6 $32,572,577 3 / 7
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) New Line $47,211,490 3,359 $313,364,114 4 / 13
A Beautiful Mind (2001) Universal $367,151 11 $170,742,341 4 / 8
Cast Away (2000) Fox $28,883,406 2,774 $233,632,142 0 / 2
O  Brother, Where Art Thou? (2000) Buena Vista $195,104 5 $45,512,588 0 / 2






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