Bottom line:
Although "Walk the Line" already earned big box office figures before Oscar nominations were announced, it's hard to know how much the nods will affect the future salaries of stars Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon.
(Suzanne Tenner / 20th Century Fox)
Brandon Gray is the founder, president and publisher of Box Office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com), an online movie publication and box office tracking service. His weekly analysis of box office results and the awards races will appear every Wednesday on The Envelope.
Box Office Analysis
Career builders?
Why Oscar wins don’t always translate into box office success for actors and actresses.
By Brandon Gray
February 27, 2006
For actors and actresses, an Oscar win is supposed to translate into a massive career boost, enhancing their awareness among moviegoers, increasing their salaries and, most importantly, allowing them the artistic and commercial pick of the litter for projects.
So why have 60% of best actor and best actress winners from the past 10 years actually seen their box office grosses drop following Academy Award victories?
As with any opportunity, it comes down to the choices that were made. Just as an Oscar nomination or win can only take a movie so far, the same is true for an actor or actress. Ultimately, it's about the movies, not the approval of others.
Statistically, Oscar doesn't seem to mean much at the end of the day. A win has never turned an artist into a star, and those who have seen the greatest post-Oscar gains in recent years were already names of some magnitude.
Perhaps no best actor winner has rallied more than Nicolas Cage. The summer after his win for "Leaving Las Vegas," he was the hero of producer Jerry Bruckheimer's action event film, "The Rock."
Granted, Cage was already well-known prior to his Oscar, thanks to a mixture of mainstream and quirky movies. "The Rock" was simply his first vehicle to fire on all cylinders at the box office, and he followed that up with a series of hits.
Halle Berry's average gross per movie doubled following her Oscar win — despite "Catwoman." That's because she reverted to being a cog in big machines like "Die Another Day" and "X2: X-Men United," movies where her presence had little to do with their success. "Monster's Ball," the picture that secured her Oscar, was an exception on her resume, and Berry has yet to prove herself a significant draw on her own.
Charlize Theron, one of the most beautiful and talented high-profile actresses working today, is the latest in a long list of glamorous actresses who went the ugly route to secure a win, transforming herself for "Monster" and trying a similar tack with "North Country."
Of course, she also tried her hand at a paycheck movie with "Aeon Flux," and paid the price commercially and critically.
Many winners seem to fall prey to the notion that becoming a box office stalwart requires big-budget spectacles. But historically, those easy choices have not been rewarded.
As for this year's front-runners, recent history suggests little upside for Philip Seymour Hoffman. He could elevate his position as a character actor for big-budget films, becoming one of the industry's top "go-to" options, such as with his villainous role in the upcoming "Mission: Impossible 3." He's also likely to headline more small, quirky fare.
Reese Witherspoon, on the other hand, is already a sizable star. "Walk the Line" is one of the few Oscar-nominated movies to earn a large audience even before nominations were announced. A win for Witherspoon would be a plus, but it's questionable how much effect it would ultimately have on her well-established career.
