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Confrontation
Confrontation: Gun store owner (Jack McGee, left), security guard (Jayden Lund), Farhad (Shaun Toub) and Dorri (Bahar Soomekh) deal with racial prejudice in "Crash."
(Lorey Sebastian / Lions Gate Films)

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Brandon Gray is the founder, president and publisher of Box Office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com), an online movie publication and box office tracking service. His weekly analysis of box office results and the awards races will appear every Wednesday on The Envelope.
Box Office Analysis

The weak after

’Crash’ lands with a thud, ‘Brokeback’ limps home in first post-Oscars outings.
By Brandon Gray
March 14, 2006
How big is the disconnect between the Oscars and moviegoers these days? Pretty substantial, judging by a look at box office returns from the first weekend after this year's Academy Awards.

So far, this year's best picture nominees have combined for $240.4 million at the box office, and there's little chance for a post-Oscars windfall.

That total is a mere 17% of the $1.41 billion made by the top five box office performers in 2005. By comparison, best picture nominees of the previous 10 years have averaged 46% against the annual box office top five.

Lionsgate rereleased best picture champ "Crash," the least-attended winner ever, in 175 theaters over the weekend. But the film, which has been available on home video since September, brought in just $342,709, or $1,958 per site.

"Walk the Line" generated about the same amount at the box office last weekend, even though it wasn't nominated for best picture and is also out on DVD.

In all, "Crash" has grossed $53.7 million theatrically, a solid number considering it was produced for just $6.5 million. But when stacked up against other best picture winners, the returns for "Crash" are dismal.

Because the Oscars rarely honor pictures that are no longer in theaters, there's not a lot to compare to "Crash's" post-win returns. The last time a May release won while it was already on DVD was "Gladiator" five years ago. That film made $456,732 at 577 theaters the weekend after the show, but it was long played out, having reached blockbuster levels early in its run.

In 1996, "Braveheart" did $587,103 at 483 theaters the weekend after the Oscars. Though it had been in and out of theaters since the previous May, it hadn't yet been released on home video.

The grosses for "Gladiator" and "Braveheart" improve greatly when ticket-price inflation is taken into account. And the less seen a picture is, like "Crash," the greater the bounce it's supposed to enjoy.

Not winning best picture took a toll on audience favorite "Brokeback Mountain," which might have been a contender for $100 million had it garnered the top prize. Not that the Academy Awards have that great an impact on the public, but a win would have kept "Brokeback" in theaters for a while and ramped up a new marketing campaign.

After losing the best picture race, Ang Lee's romantic drama dropped 52% to $1.2 million over the weekend, lifting its total to $81 million. It will soon out-gross "The Notebook," another recent romantic drama that resonated with the public but without any Oscar nominations, let alone wins.





How the five best picture nominees compare to top five box office performers  
Year Best Picture Total Top 5 Total Percent Difference Best Picture Winner Winner's Gross #1 Movie #1 Movie's Gross  
2005 $240,405,259 $1,410,463,716 -83.0% Crash $53,747,526 Revenge of the Sith $380,270,577  
2004 $401,618,339 $1,725,788,928 -76.7% Million Dollar Baby $100,492,203 Shrek 2 $441,226,247  
2003 $725,953,743 $1,546,561,943 -53.1% Return of the King $377,027,325 Return of the King $377,027,325  
2002 $662,537,970 $1,557,599,686 -57.5% Chicago $170,687,518 Spider-Man $403,706,375  
2001 $618,732,281 $1,380,642,211 -55.2% A Beautiful Mind $170,742,341 Harry Potter $317,575,550  
2000 $637,004,592 $1,079,603,990 -41.0% Gladiator $187,705,427 The Grinch $260,044,825  
1999 $647,039,271 $1,347,966,788 -52.0% American Beauty $130,096,601 The Phantom Menace $431,088,301  
1998 $440,540,705 $918,893,953 -52.1% Shakespeare in Love $100,317,794 Saving Private Ryan $216,540,909  
1997 $998,265,549 $1,434,932,430 -30.4% Titanic $600,788,188 Titanic $600,788,188  
1996 $306,408,495 $1,019,317,951 -69.9% The English Patient $78,676,425 Independence Day $306,169,268  
1995 $376,368,920 $797,863,963 -52.8% Braveheart $75,609,945 Toy Story $191,796,233  
Source: Box Office Mojo, LLC (www.boxofficemojo.com)






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