Eyes on the prizes

When sizing up potential nominees, Oscar devotees should focus on films that generate the most passionate support. Whereas other awards employ a weighted ballot that dispenses points based upon how voters rank choices, one to five, in each category, the Oscars use a unique preferential ballot that mostly dismisses lower-rung choices. Therefore, nominees tend to be the films that have the most voters rooting for them to win over others that may have wider, less-concentrated support. Here's an early breakdown of how the top races appear now.

BEST PICTURE

Favorites

"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"Charlie Wilson's War"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Sweeney Todd"
"There Will Be Blood"
"3:10 to Yuma"

Spotlight: "Charlie Wilson's War" has many of the key elements of a classic best picture champ: an esteemed director (Mike Nichols) leading an A-list cast of Oscar winners (Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman) to tell an urgent tale based upon real life (a secret ploy to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan and bring down the Iron Curtain). But beware: "Charlie" is still unseen and could be toppled once Universal finally begins screenings in late November.

Possible

"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"The Great Debaters"
"Hairspray"
"The Kite Runner"
"Once"
"Zodiac"

Spotlight: "The Kite Runner" has delirious supporters swept up in its poignant story of friendship under siege in war-torn Afghanistan. While Oscar voters love well-crafted weepies adapted from beloved books, this one doesn't feature Hollywood celebs and much of its dialogue is in Farsi. Still, "Kite" is powerful and could get a boost from news stories about its boy stars being evacuated from Kabul due to fears of backlash over the film's rape scene.

Long shots

"Eastern Promises"
"Enchanted"
"The Golden Compass"
"Gone Baby Gone"
"Lions for Lambs"
"Lust, Caution"

Spotlight: Critics say "Lions for Lambs" roars with too much liberal propaganda and not enough dramatic action, but many viewers are deeply moved by its message and impressed by its sincere patriotism. Voters could be blinded by its academy-friendly star power. Director-star Robert Redford won his only Oscar helming best picture champ "Ordinary People." Meryl Streep has won twice ("Sophie's Choice," "Kramer vs. Kramer") and holds the record for most nominations (14). After three nominations, Tom Cruise is overdue.

DIRECTORS»