BEHIND THE SCREENS

Thinking ahead

Predicting how Hollywood will spin this year’s Oscar ratings.

James Bates

Behind the Screens

March 1, 2006

As if there aren't enough Oscar predictions out there, here are a couple more.

And we don't mean the kind that lay odds on "Cinderella Man's" Paul Giamatti holding off "Syriana's" George Clooney for best supporting actor.

Or whether Howard Berger and Tami Lane of "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" will swoop in to grab the makeup Oscar over Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley of "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith."

No, there's a much bigger Academy Award cliffhanger shaping up.

Bigger than whether the star of a cable hit, "The Daily Show's" Jon Stewart, can pull off the hosting duties.

Even bigger than whether the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will honor a movie about men in love, a la "Brokeback Mountain."

This year's hottest question is whether anyone will watch an awards show honoring movies that so few people have seen. Since there are three possible scenarios — ratings up, ratings down, ratings flat — we'll predict the spin that various parties will offer up to explain the Nielsen aftermath.

Headline: "Oscar ratings surge a surprise."

Expected Spin:
—Viewers just want to see good movies honored, and don't care how they did at the box office. (Academy, studios)

—People like watching ABC, which is the only network that gets people to watch an award show honoring movies hardly anyone has seen. (parent Walt Disney Co., CEO Bob Iger)

—There was no serious competition in the time slot, so what do you expect? (CBS, NBC, Fox, that new CW network)

—People tune in to see best actress nominee and "Desperate Housewives" star Felicity Huffman. (ABC, her agent)

—Two words: Jon Stewart. (Comedy Central, his agent)

—Viewers love watching airhead commentators slobbering over stars on the red carpet before the show. (ABC, KABC and E!)

—Viewers want to see hot young stars such as nominees Reese Witherspoon and Keira Knightley. (Us magazine)

—Red state viewers only tuned in to see nominated "Walk the Line" actors Reese Witherspoon and Joaquin Phoenix honored. (Fox News commentators, Parents Television Council)

—Cheney's hunting accident has made America eager to rally around liberal Hollywood. (Arianna Huffington, John Kerry, Air America)

Headline: "Oscar ratings plunge again"
 
Expected Spin:
—It's the box office slowdown, caused by theater owners who charge too much for popcorn and run too many ads. (Academy, studios)

—How can you get anyone to watch a show honoring movies hardly anyone has seen? (ABC)

—ABC doesn't know how to pull off a good awards show. (CBS, NBC, Fox, that new CW network)

—It would have helped if "Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" was nominated for best picture. (ABC parent Walt Disney Co.)

—Two words: Jon Stewart. (Agents for past hosts Billy Crystal, David Letterman, Steve Martin and Whoopi Goldberg)

—What do you expect when you nominate unknowns like Amy Adams and David Strathairn instead of Jessica Simpson and Johnny Depp? (Us magazine)

—"Cinderella Man" wasn't nominated for best picture. (Universal Pictures, director Ron Howard, producer Brian Grazer, Russell Crowe)

—Parents refused to watch because a rap piece glorifying criminals; "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," was nominated for best song. (Parents Television Council)

—Viewers protested the gay content in "Brokeback Mountain" and "Capote," and having country icon Dolly Parton sing "Travelin' Thru" from the transgender film "Transamerica." (Fox News commentators, Focus on the Family's James Dobson.)

Headline: "Oscar ratings flat from year-earlier"
 
Expected Spin:
—Any, or all, of the above.

Independent's real day
This year's Oscar nominees are full of independent films, which aren't really that independent because they are distributed by "specialty" arms of big companies.

For instance, "Brokeback Mountain" is distributed by Focus Features, which happens to be part of Universal Pictures, which happens to be part of NBC Universal, which happens to be part of General Electric Co., which happens to be one of the world's biggest corporations.

So much for the aura of a small film.

The real awards honoring smaller films is Film Independent's Independent Spirit Awards, which sets up its tent on the beach in Santa Monica, Calif., on Saturday for a ceremony that airs live on the Independent Film Channel, reruns on AMC and has a red carpet event on the WE channel.

A look at the group's nonprofit financial documents filed with the IRS shows that, like the films it honors, the Spirit Awards operate on a shoestring budget. If the Oscars are the "King Kong" of spending, then the Spirits are "Junebug."

According to the most recent numbers available, Film Independent's awards and separate film festival bring in $4.5 million.

By contrast, last year's Oscars reaped $50.9 million, according to the academy's financial documents.