NOTES ON A SEASON

The season without reason

The Oscar ballot deadline looms and the strike threatens the ceremony, yet it appears that the race for nominations is just beginning.

Pete Hammond

Notes on a Season

January 11, 2008

First-round Academy Award ballots are due back by Saturday at 5 p.m. but judging from the activity around town you would think the race for nominations is really just beginning rather than ending.

Packed Q&As for the likes of "Atonement," "Eastern Promises," "Michael Clayton," "Sweeney Todd," "The Great Debaters" and "Into the Wild," to name just a few contenders, have been in full swing in these final days. These intimate sessions will probably continue right up through the Jan. 25 due date for SAG ballots.

And despite the meltdown of the Golden Globes, parties are still going on.

20th Century Fox toppers Tom Rothman and Jim Gianopulos threw one at Rothman's house Wednesday night for "Juno" and Picturehouse hosted one for their "La Vie en Rose" star Marion Cotillard Thursday night at Il Cielo.

Cotillard, whose remarkable performance as Edith Piaf could make her only the second actress to win for a foreign-language performance (Sophia Loren was the first in 1961), was radiant as she is now ensconced in L.A. through the first week of February.

Saturday night, Cotillard receives her L.A. Film Critics award for best actress. Then Sunday, she and Picturehouse hope to hear the anchors of "Access Hollywood" (oy!) announce she has won a Golden Globe as well.

It's a smart strategy since she is not as well known here as in France and the personal touch can make a big difference, particularly when there are the likes of an icon (favorite Julie Christie), a superstar (Angelina Jolie) and a celebrated newcomer (Ellen Page) -- all expected to have a run at the actress race as well.

Picturehouse topper Bob Berney engineered a highly successful campaign for Charlize Theron in "Monster," and the exposure he put the star through during a key period paid off big-time with her ultimate win at the Oscars. He obviously hopes to repeat with Cotillard, whose film was released last June.

An absent Christie skipped potential photo ops on Sunday and Monday for her wins at the Broadcast and New York Film Critics awards for "Away From Her."

Christie has been "away from here" for several weeks but is promising to come back for a voter-heavy Santa Barbara Film Festival appearance Jan. 25, just three days after nominations are announced.

Cotillard and Page will be given the festival's "Vanguard" award Jan. 30 while Jolie receives "Performance of the Year" there on Feb. 2. Cate Blanchett, another contender, gets the Modern Master Award on Jan. 26.

Meanwhile, this week the clouded race for best picture just got a little clearer with the all-important disclosure of Directors and Writers Guild nominations. Since these awards, like the Oscars, are voted on by peers in the industry -- rather than critics -- they tend to be much more accurate in foretelling eventual academy nominations.

If that is indeed the case this year, and we add up the numbers from DGA, WGA and previously announced SAG nods, then "Into the Wild," "No Country for Old Men" and "Michael Clayton" are looking awfully good to get into the best pic race on Jan. 22.

"Wild" scored writers, directors (both for Sean Penn) and four SAG noms. "Country" and "Clayton" made virtually the same run (both had three SAG nods, although "Clayton" missed out on the important best cast category).

With mentions from all three groups,"There Will Be Blood" also is looking like a solid nominee at this point. That leaves "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" with DGA and WGA nods, and "Juno" with one SAG and a WGA nomination. Both films will fight it out for the fifth of Oscar's Best Picture slots if you decide to use the Guild tea leaves as your guide.

Still to be heard from is the Producers Guild, which announces its nominees on Monday.

The British Academy's nominations are out on Wednesday and can also be telling.

BAFTA put out its "long list" of preliminary contenders, and swamping the field with a whopping 17 mentions is hometown favorite, "Atonement," which needs all the British love it can find after its stunning omissions in all the Hollywood guild races to date.

"Atonement" is so far the biggest head-scratcher of the season, the presumed front-runner since the Venice and Toronto film festivals in late summer, it is a beautifully crafted movie that has "Oscar" written all over it.

Yet it seems to be getting no traction, at least from critics groups and Hollywood guilds with the exception of the American Society of Cinematographers who nominated director of photography Seamus McGarvey's acclaimed work earlier this week.

Focus is hoping for at least a PGA nomination, a major showing on the final BAFTA list and some Golden Globe wins where it leads all others with seven nominations.

The Globe attention would be nice but is not crucial since Oscar ballots will be in before the HFPA announces its winners in a pared-down Sunday telecast/press conference that promises little promotional value compared to previous years.

Still it would be nice for Focus to have those wins to tout on their ads, particularly if the Academy does wind up nominating "Atonement."

A couple of informal private polls of Academy members put the sweeping love story on the bubble but far from the sure bet most pundits predicted from day one. But take heart. In 1998 Terence Malick's "The Thin Red Line" was completely ignored by SAG, PGA, WGA and, the Globes yet went on to garner seven Oscar nominations including best picture.

"Sweeney Todd" is another film passed on by the Guilds that is hoping for Globe attention this weekend but it appears that the musical may be running out of steam.

Insiders at the HFPA are now predicting a "Juno" victory over "Sweeney" and "Hairspray" in the musical /comedy category, although Johnny Depp is still a lock.

Universal's solid moneymaker, "American Gangster," can't be counted out at this point, but without DGA or WGA nominations, its odds are getting longer.

Then there's Harvey Weinstein's great hope of 2007, "The Great Debaters," which is hoping to shock the town and land a last-minute best picture nomination. Again, the odds would appear to be daunting even though the film has generated a lot of goodwill at packed screenings.

It landed eight NAACP Image Award nominations this week and is up for best drama picture at the Globes, which is of course, this hurting awards season's next stop.

So, plan your Golden Globe "press conference"-watching parties now and see if some 80-odd Hollywood Foreign Press members can salvage their dignity and add a little clarity to the Season without reason.