Talked out:
None of this year's best picture nominees, including 'Capote', are seeing box office benefits from aggressive Oscar campaigns.
(Attila Dory / Sony Pictures Classics)
Brandon Gray is the founder, president and publisher of Box Office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com), an online movie publication and box office tracking service. His weekly analysis of box office results and the awards races will appear every Wednesday on The Envelope.
Box Office Analysis
Cineplex slowdown
So much for that post-noms surge. Moviegoers are cooling on 'Capote,' 'Munich' and other best picture candidates.
By Brandon Gray
February 14, 2006
If you thought box office results were low for best picture contenders on the first weekend after nominations were announced, take a look at what happened in their second week basking in Oscar's glow.
As a group, this year's best picture nominees dropped an average of 43% last weekend from the previous weekend's already dismal results.
How bad does it look? Last year's best picture candidates — the least profitable group of nominees on record — fell just 17% in the same frame.
"Brokeback Mountain" fared the best among this year's crop, and it was down 33%. It's the only best picture nominee that rates more than a blip on the box office radar, with a $4 million weekend and a $66.5 million tally in 66 days.
"Capote" crumbled 45%, "Good Night, and Good Luck" slumped 43% and "Munich" sank 53% from already pitiful grosses the weekend before.
What impact this will have on the March 5 telecast remains to be seen, but these results serve as a reminder that people don't see movies simply because numerous nominations and awards have been racked up.
For the majority of moviegoers, the Oscars carry little weight, and pictures that rely on a bump from the Academy Awards will only go so far.
To succeed, a movie must have a compelling story and a solid marketing campaign — two things that seem to be lacking among this year's awards contenders.
"Brokeback Mountain" ads, for instance, trumpet the picture's legion of awards and nominations, essentially telling filmgoers they must see the picture because it's important and revelatory.
The message that "Brokeback Mountain" happens to be a universally resonant love story is buried underneath all the trophies. The result? The picture seems to have lost momentum since receiving all those Academy Award nominations.
These arguments from authority — the academy says it's one of the best pictures so you must see it — are a common ploy by marketers. They also lean heavily on a bandwagon strategy, where the thinking seems to be that "everybody's talking about this movie so you must see it too."
Both strategies are irrational, yet have proven effective across time and all products, not just movies. But they are secondary. What the product is, what it does, why it's worth your time and money — these are what people look for. And these are what studios have not given them.
Of course, marketing is just one part of the equation. The other key element is the storytelling within the film.
This year's best picture nominees have been such a marketing challenge because the movies themselves don't offer much to most people. The perception is that these are message movies, although their messages are murky or alienating to potential moviegoers or not told in an entertaining fashion.
"Brokeback Mountain" has managed to stand out thanks to its "gay cowboy" hook, which has garnered lots of press and constant jokes on late-night talk shows. But the picture is languidly paced with an episodic story. In other words, the "gay cowboy" aspect isn't the only reason someone might not like the movie or give it glowing word-of-mouth.
Still, "Brokeback Mountain" is the nominee that has the most cultural resonance, and that's why it's the only film in the bunch with an outside shot at reaching the $100 million mark.
