BRANDON GRAY: BOX OFFICE ANALYSIS

The $100 million question

Will 'Brokeback' fall short of the century mark even with a best picture win?

Brandon Gray

Box Office Analysis

February 22, 2006

For the first time since the "The English Patient" won an Oscar in 1997, there's a very real possibility that the winner of the Academy Awards' best picture honor might not top $100 million at the box office.

That milestone has become the norm in Hollywood, where best picture champs have broken the century mark 75% of the time in the past 20 years.

"Brokeback Mountain" is Oscar's sole hope for reaching that level. Director Ang Lee's cowboy love story has corralled a bustling $72.1 million in 74 days. This past weekend, it lassoed nearly three times as much business as its nearest best picture competitor, "Capote."

More importantly, "Brokeback" was popular with filmgoers even before the recognition — in the form of nominations — by the academy.

Still, "Brokeback Mountain" is far from a lock for $100 million. By the Oscar telecast, it should be at about $79 million, and, if it were to receive the same sort of post-Academy Awards bump as "The English Patient,' the film would fall short.

Distributor Focus Features would have to aggressively relaunch "Brokeback Mountain" and keep it in theaters for a long time — although a reported April 4 DVD release would cut into that scenario.

"Shakespeare in Love" found itself in a similar situation eight years ago, but distributor Miramax kept it playing, with three different expansions following the Oscars, until it inched past the century mark.

Last year, "Million Dollar Baby" squeaked past the $100 million barrier after starting from a lower cumulative gross than "Brokeback Mountain." But that film was still in the prime of a wide release when it won, and its weekend performances were more than twice that of "Brokeback."

If "Crash" were to win, and that's a possibility given its following, Lionsgate's ubiquitous campaign and recent honors by the editor's guild — where "Brokeback Mountain" was shut out of that competition — it would be the least popular theatrical best picture winner on record.

On DVD since September, the Los Angeles racial drama grossed $53.4 million last summer in theaters. It was a decent hit, especially in relation to its $7 million production budget, but it wasn't nearly as impressive as "Brokeback Mountain." Historically, urban dramas are a much easier sell than westerns and gay-themed movies (and especially gay westerns).

Going against "Crash" is the fact that a "Brokeback Mountain" victory would, in some measure, save face for the industry after a disappointing year at the box office.

Of course, grossing $100 million isn't what it used to be. Adjusted for ticket price inflation, "The English Patient" would reap around $110 million today. "Braveheart," the winner from the 68th annual Oscars, grossed $75.6 million, which adjusts to $111 million today.

One would have to go back 18 years, to "The Last Emperor" from the ceremony held in 1988, to find a best picture that didn't make the equivalent of $100 million.