NOTES ON A SEASON

SAG nods spell bad news for 'Sweeney Todd,' 'Atonement'

'No Country for Old Men' looks like a best picture lock, while the strike continues to concern awards insiders.

Pete Hammond

Notes on a Season

December 20, 2007

In case you even have to ask, the awards race is still wide open.

The Screen Actors Guild jumped right into this wild, wild awards season by anointing Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" as the actors' front-runner with four nominations.

That means the film got every single thing it could have been named for – actor for Emile Hirsch, supporting actor for Hal Holbrook, supporting actress for Catherine Keener, and best cast (there is no lead actress in the film).

The 2,100 members of the SAG nominating committee clearly embraced one of their own: actor turned writer-director Penn, a widely respected actor's actor who has won critical acclaim behind the camera this time.

The Paramount Vantage release certainly has had a roller-coaster ride of a season so far. It was virtually ignored by critics groups and the Golden Globes (except for a couple of music nominations).

Strong support showed up for "Wild" only with its early Gotham awards win for best picture, followed by seven Critics Choice nods from the Broadcast Critics Assn., including best picture and the three actors whom SAG also named.

So why should we pay attention?

SAG is the first non-critic-centric awards body to pipe in this season. In a sense, it's the first one that really matters, operating as one of a quartet of major guild kudos bellwethers (namely the producers, directors and writers guilds, which will all announce their nominations in January).

SAG also has an enviable track record. In its 13 previous years it has closely foreshadowed what the Academy Awards will eventually do, often off only by one nomination at the most.

More so than the myriad of critics' awards, the nominees and winners of the various guilds awards are what smart prognosticators really look to when trying to predict the prevailing Oscar winds, since so much of their membership overlaps with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Last year, for instance, the academy's eventual acting nominees matched 19 of the 20 SAG nominees. The only discrepancy was the supporting actor nominee from "The Departed." (Oscar went with Mark Wahlberg while SAG preferred Leonardo DiCaprio.)

In SAG's outstanding cast category, the one awards pundits often compare to the academy's best picture prize, three of last year's nominees matched Oscar. In 2005, "Crash's" SAG ensemble victory was the first indication of trouble for "Brokeback Mountain," which notably went on to lose the best picture Oscar to "Crash" as well.

This year's list, with dark-horse titles like "3:10 To Yuma" and "Hairspray," is raising eyebrows. The inclusion of "American Gangster" and, certainly, "Into The Wild" in this category will be seen as a boon to their chances, but only "No Country for Old Men" on the cast list is a surefire best picture Oscar nominee at this point.

"Juno's" omission in the category has to be a disappointment for Fox Searchlight, since the best picture Oscar prospects of the "little film that could" keep being compared to their "Little Miss Sunshine," which was the winner for best cast last year and went on to a top academy nomination as well.

And rarely do we see performances not even nominated by SAG ever win Oscars. In fact, only Marcia Gay Harden in "Pollock" (2000) managed to pull that trick in the SAG awards' entire 13-year history, a statistic that does not bode well for the stars of "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd," both chock full of Globe and BFCA nominations but completely ignored by "The Actor" (the official name for the trophy SAG hands out).

Interestingly, both "Sweeney" and "Atonement" are December releases, apparently a bad-luck month this year for flicks hoping to compete for SAG recognition. It's an interesting wrinkle, since the SAG nomination voting and announcement dates were moved up by two weeks to adjust to the shortened awards season.

This would appear to make DVD screener availability and those all-important SAG nominating committee screenings and Q&As even more vitally important than ever in reaching the voters.

"Todd," which opens Friday, still has not sent DVD screeners out, while "Atonement's" December release could have harmed it with SAG despite the fact that screeners were in hand.

Nearly all of today's nominees did in-person screening Q&As for SAG, some more than once, and the in-person touch clearly seems to have paid off.

Among those who didn't – or weren't able to – appear for Q&As (at least in L.A.) were two thought-to-be major contenders, Johnny Depp and Keira Knightley. Neither actor was nominated by SAG.

As for those long-shot performances that were screened and released earlier in the season, many are now seeing their 2007 nomination stock now soar. That would include Viggo Mortensen for "Eastern Promises," who has now racked up SAG, Globe and BFCA nominations.

The same applies to Ryan Gosling for "Lars and the Real Girl," Emile Hirsch for "Wild," Cate Blanchett's "Elizabeth" reprisal (despite the flop of the film) and Ruby Dee, a beloved 83-year-old veteran who notched SAG's ensemble and supporting actress for "American Gangster" yet has never received an Oscar nomination.

This year's SAG awards ceremony, airing on TNT and TBS on Jan. 27, should certainly be interesting, but at least we know it's happening and we will be able to see it.

The striking WGA, in solidarity with SAG and thankful for the actors' unwavering support out on the picket lines, has granted a waiver to the awards ceremony so actors can be comfortable showing up knowing they will not have to cross picket lines.

The 2007 Critics Choice awards from the Broadcast Critics Assn. will kick off this portion of the season on Jan. 7, and also is not threatened by picketing. The organization's new broadcast outlet, VH1 -- along with the show's production entity, Bob Bain Prods. -- are not signatories to WGA and therefore not considered "struck" companies.

This could actually increase star turnout for both the SAG and BFCA parties since publicists will definitely want exposure for their contenders during crucial voting periods.

Uncertainty about other award shows could fuel bigger turnout for those award shows that are unaffected by the strike.

The big questions remain, of course, should the strike still be going on: What are the fates of Golden Globes on Jan. 13 and the Oscars on Feb. 24? WGA has not granted waivers to either, and all sorts of rumors are flying fast and furiously about what will happen.

Depending on who you listen to (and it changes hourly), the Globes will sign an interim agreement with the guild and proceed as usual, or the awards will be canceled, postponed, telecast with only nominees and no star presenters, go on as scheduled without a telecast, or held at Alec Baldwin's New York apartment (hey, he volunteered it).

How a scaled down or non-existent Globes could affect the rest of awards season is interesting since it is said to be so influential, not to mention a great way to show off potential Oscar acceptance speeches to a roomful of academy members.

Some feel the WGA would be wise to embrace both the Globes and the Oscars as it will give on-stage presenters and winners the opportunity to show support for their cause on nationally televised bully pulpits.

One very high level producer -- a double Golden Globe nominee this year -- told us yesterday she thinks it is unfair of WGA to grant a waiver only to SAG and not the rest since all these shows are supposed to be a celebration of achievement, a time to focus on what the industry should really stand for.

This insider has heard the Globes will definitely go on, most likely as a private affair, meaning without the huge NBC TV audience that studio Oscar consultants count on each year.

It could be especially ironic if the Globes suffer due to the policies of the WGA, since the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is, by its nature, made up of people who make a living by writing.

A lot of the HFPA's multimillion-dollar license fee that NBC pays goes each year to charitable foundations that help the entertainment industry.

As for the Oscars, producer Gil Cates says there is zero chance that show will not go on – strike or no strike. And quite frankly, they always do. A world without the Oscar ceremony is not one awards insiders want to contemplate.

Then again, this is coming from the same Gil Cates who is a chief negotiator for the DGA, another union about to start talks with the studios on a new contract.

It goes on and on, doesn't it? Just like The Season.

Happy Holidays.