As for the Oscars, nothing has stopped that show from airing since its TV history began in 1953 -- although a strike in 1967 almost did the trick.

That year, the academy was planning to hold its show April 10 despite an ongoing strike by AFTRA, the union with jurisdiction over live TV broadcasts.

It appeared likely the Oscars would be seen only by those in attendance at the Santa Monica Civic Auditorium, which would have cost the academy a reported $700,000 (this year a TV blackout would set the organization back around $30 million).

Even though camera rehearsals proceeded in case of a settlement, the outlook was grim until a miraculous agreement was reached with the union just three hours before showtime.

The show was indeed seen on ABC, although, as it turned out, Walter Matthau was the only acting winner (best supporting actor for "The Fortune Cookie") on hand to accept in person.

Optimists want to believe the strike will not be going on two months from now, when the Oscars are scheduled to air (Feb. 24). But lately it's a lot easier to find pessimists when talking about this particular scenario. If it lasts as long as the 1988 writers walkout, the pickets will still be out there into mid-April.

Perhaps Directors Guild of America chief contract negotiator Gil Cates has a miracle up his sleeve when the directors start their talks sometime after the first of the year -- a miracle that not only will affect the outcome of the writers strike but also save this year's 80th Oscars show, which he is producing for the 14th time.

As for the other questions about the race for awards gold in the usually dormant week between Christmas and New Years: can box office and a campaign blitz make a difference for the late starters?

"Sweeney Todd" has pulled in a pretty good $14 million in its first five days but has been dropping slowly down the charts. An official academy screening last Saturday drew a fairly light (and older) crowd of around 400 and received mixed response, according to observers.

The toll of being screened on the weekend just before Christmas also hit "Charlie Wilson's War" and "The Great Debaters," which each had even more sparse turnouts at the academy headquarters. But those who showed seemed to like what they saw.

In the case of director and star Denzel Washington's "Debaters," which opened Christmas Day to around $3.4 million, it would appear to be an uphill climb trying to get traction in a race that so far seems mostly to be rewarding early starters.

But the film has turned into a major passion project for Oscar-warrior and recently married Harvey Weinstein, whose company is releasing the film through MGM. The newlywed is even interrupting his honeymoon period long enough to lead the awards charge.

Weinstein has been pushing his staff to pull out all the stops for the film with nightly screenings aimed at voters wherever they can find them, not only in such holiday haunts as Maui, Aspen, Sun Valley, Palm Springs and Santa Barbara, but also Greenwich, Conn., Westchester, N.Y., Detroit, Orlando and Chicago.

Before the film opened, Weinstein even made sure his staff rented out his "good luck" theater, the Malibu Twin, where the film has been drawing approving academy members like Shirley MacLaine.

The Golden Globe nomination "Debaters" grabbed earlier this month in the best picture drama category was a key part of the strategy. The film also has been announced as the winner of the Stanley Kramer Award from the Producers Guild, and now the DVD has been delivered to academy voters just as ballots go out.

In a rare move for Weinstein, the company is also promoting the film with a large outdoor advertising campaign, putting it in voters faces everywhere they drive.

The hope is that the film about an all-black Texas debate team that goes on to compete at Harvard in the mid-1930s will appeal to voters tired of some of the more violent, depressing contenders and generate positive word-of-mouth in academy circles to become a January surprise in the still-wide-open best picture race.

Certainly it has the stuff best picture Oscar contenders are made of -- at least if we are looking historically at the academy's tendency to nominate and even reward films with racial and social import.

Norman Jewison's "In the Heat of the Night" was a best picture winner exactly 40 years ago, and since then best picture nominations have gone to the likes of "Sounder," "A Soldier's Story," "The Color Purple" and "Ray," among other films with primarily African American casts.

Denzel Washington, who also has "American Gangster" competing against "Debaters" for the Golden Globe, has helped out doing, several screening Q&As, and has been vocal in saying that "Debaters" is the movie where his heart is.

Can "Debaters" make an end run with the clock ticking in the fourth quarter?

There's at least one newlywed out there who thinks so.

"Sometimes you don't get to come in with a lot of hoopla," Weinstein says. "Sometimes it's just about the tortoise winning the race in the end."

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