Picks that click

It's a new year and the beginning of awards season, which means it's time for pretentious, self-important predictions about the events of the next few months.

In fairness, since we still haven't seen "The Island," "Aeon Flux" or "Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo," we don't feel qualified to say with confidence yet who will take home all the hardware.

However, we do feel reasonably sure of our ability to discern who will join Barbara Walters on Oscar night, how certain actors will react to their nominations, and what will happen to at least one low-level agent, among other items.

Here then is the first and only batch of awards predictions you really need for 2006:

Indignant pundits will complain that the Independent Spirit Awards should drop the name "independent" because virtually every film is released by specialty divisions of big studios.

If Mariah Carey and/or Kanye West are big Grammy winners, dozens of headlines will play off their names. Some possibilities: "Mariah Carries Home the Grammys" and "Kanye Kan't Be Stopped."

Someone will note that Rick Springfield and the people behind "Afternoon Delight" are the only artists who have yet to receive Grammy Lifetime Achievement Awards.

TV entertainment reporters will regurgitate the clichéd line that the Golden Globes is a predictor of the Oscars, forgetting that "The Aviator" beat "Million Dollar Baby" last year.

The Screen Actors Guild will not hire extra security for its star-studded awards show to combat a more aggressive paparazzi. SAG, however, will hire extra security to keep fights from breaking out among members.

Whoever is named to host the Oscars will be asked during the news conference how it feels to be the second or third choice.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will insist that there never was a plan to have Billy Crystal host, that whoever was named was always at the top of everyone's wish list and that everyone "couldn't be more thrilled" that the person agreed to host.

Every actor and actress nominated, including the favorites, will recall how they were "shocked," "pleasantly surprised," "deeply honored" and "overwhelmed" to learn of the nomination.

At least one will recount in great detail about learning of the nomination in a phone call from a manager while sitting in the makeup chair before shooting a scene on location in Morocco.

If Joaquin Phoenix is nominated for an acting Academy Award for "Walk the Line," Oscar trivia geeks will note that, should he win, it won't be the first time someone born in Puerto Rico scored such a victory because Rita Moreno and José Ferrer were also born there.

If Heath Ledger is nominated in the best actor category for "Brokeback Mountain," Oscar trivia geeks will note that, should he win, he would be the first Australian-born male to earn the honor since Geoffrey Rush, because Russell Crowe was born in New Zealand.