Daily Awards Buzz & Rumors by Mark Olsen

Jeffrey Wells, David Poland and Sasha Stone respond to Oscar suggestions… Nathaniel Rogers on Oscar reactions… The Vulture on Oscar blooper… David Carr still looking for deeper meaning in the Oscars… Anne Thompson ready to be done with it

“L.A. Times columnist Patrick Goldstein has assembled the smartest and most creative suggestions for how to fix the Oscar show that I've read anywhere. I've listed a few, but it can all be boiled down to three words – fire Gil Cates. He's too old to get with the 21st Century program and needs to be put out to pasture – simple. Bring in a producer who’s younger and fresher and more alive-in-the-moment. Somebody in their 60s, I mean.” – Jeffrey Wells has some ideas on how to improve the Oscars at Hollywood Elsewhere

“There's nothing more pathetic than Traditional Media, unable to figure out the current marketplace, explaining to others how the current marketplace should work… What happened to the ratings? It's not complicated. The expected acting winners and the ones who won in upsets were all, pretty much, unknown outside of the arthouse world. ‘Juno’ was the one major box office hit in the group... but as excellent as Ellen Page is, she was the only acting nominee from the film and has not proved to be a 'we have to tune in to see what she says' kind of public personality. The f-ing songs nominated from ‘Enchanted’... a movie most loved by the already committed Oscar viewers.” – David Poland disagrees with the LAT’s own Patrick Goldstein at Movie City News

“You know, I’ve never been one to defend the sometimes silly decisions AMPAS makes, but reading all of the post-game stuff is a bit tiresome. Yes, the show got the worst ratings ever. No, it wasn’t a great show. Yes, it was probably Plan B after all. Here is Patrick Goldstein giving his suggestions as to how to get more eyeballs to tune in…” – Sasha Stone has here own take at Awards Daily

“In Supporting Actor, Javier Bardem is the only one with any readable interesting emotion... so I’m not showing the whole box. Plus Jennifer Hudson killed the drama (it's because she’s not really an actress) by reading the sentence like this: 'and the Oscar goes to Jarvier Bardem'… WHERE WAS THE ELIPSIS? There has to be one or you kill the tiny quintupled drama. Jennifer, Jennifer, Jennifer. Do-Over.” – Nathaniel Rogers dissects the reactions of the winners (and the losers) at the Film Experience

“While everyone at your Oscar party was falling asleep, lucky viewers in Buffalo, New York, were treated to hilarious, spot-on awards analysis from the anchors at their local ABC News station, whose audio commentary was accidentally broadcast thanks to a technical glitch… Like WKBW’s Keith Radford, we, too, think the Oscars are [expletive] though he’s completely correct when he says ‘No Country’ is ‘the best movie of the year’ despite it just being about ‘a guy with no expression [who] keeps blowing up everything.’ Here's hoping they’ll let Radford live-blog next year's ceremony.” – The Vulture finds quite the Oscar-night blooper at New York magazine

“Have the Oscars and the industry it celebrates become a microcosm of the American economy? Think about it. High costs to market something the consumer doesn’t seem to want; a reliance on imports, as well as on selling a traditional product at a time when consumers have all manner of new options. Then there’s the stubborn unwillingness to meet those consumers on the platform and device of their choosing.” – David Carr keeps thinking about the meaning of Oscars’ low ratings at the New York Times

“I’m so glad the Oscar season is over that the idea of professional Oscar watchers already predicting next year's awards makes me feel, well, tired. But this is their life, 24/7, while I move on to such mundane annual rituals as the ShoWest exhibitor convention in Las Vegas.” – Anne Thompson isn’t ready yet to think about next Oscar season at Variety

Kristopher Tapley, Sasha Stone and Scott Fienberg get into next year’s Oscar race… David Carr and Lou Lumenick on Oscar ratings… Nathaniel Rogers on red carpet posing… The AP on Oscar prognosticators… Cinematical suggests a few improvements… Glenn Kenny on Oscar grumps… Entertainment Weekly answers telecast questions… S.T. VanAirsdale needs a vacation… The Vulture makes some predictions

“It’s never too late to take a long gander at what we might see dominating the film awards landscape in 365 days, and with that in mind, I’ve been doing my usual mulling over the possibilities for a few weeks to put together the sadly thorough examination of the 2008-09 award season that follows. Let’s get into it. There are some major considerations to take into account, right off the top.” – Kristopher Tapley looks at the potential Oscar nominees for next year (yikes) at Variety

“The watch is on.  Over the coming days, we will gather the new info for this upcoming year in films as we barrel towards yet another race.  We will bear in mind not hyping any movie too much thus killing its chances by year’s end.  We will also bear in mind that nobody knows anything.” – Sasha Stone joins in, in her own way at Awards Daily

“Nobody is more ready than I am to put the 2007 awards season in the rearview mirror... and nobody is more anxious for the 2008 awards season to begin, either!... At this time, we obviously have very little information upon which to base any discussion of what the awards landscape may look like—not only have none us seen the films, but some of them have not yet even gone into production!” – Scott Feinberg also jumps on the 2008 bandwagon at The Film Experience

“Nor is celebrity the precious driver of big numbers it used to be. Not too long ago people would tune in to the Oscars to find out what Jessica Alba or Cate Blanchett looked like with a baby bump. But in today’s real-time celeb information economy, anyone who cared probably already knew what they looked like and may even have seen the dresses they had selected to wear on the red carpet…. Celebrities are just not the remote, untouchable creatures they once were — they are our familiars, and we know all too well what they are up to.” – David Carr gets into possible reasons behind the low ratings for the Oscars at the New York Times

“Don’t expect Jon Stewart to be back as host of the Oscars. The audience tuned out of the deadly dull Oscarcast in droves, resulting in the worst ratings in history, a 20 percent drop from last year, when Ellen DeGeneres hosted. With an estimated 32 million viewers, the smug Stewart beat the record he previously set for the least-watched Oscarcast, back in 2003. Of course, the little-seen Best nominees didn't help, nor did a show that was slapped together in a week after the end of the writers’ strike. But there was no writers strike back in 2003, when the show managed just a million more viewers.” – Lou Lumenick also looks at the low ratings at the New York Post

“Here we see Amy Adams in perfect form, demonstrating the double akimbo tuck. Cameron works her patented chiropratwistic single so effortlessly it's like she came out of the womb this way. Painful for her mother surely but there's a price to pay for all that fabulous.” – Nathaniel Rogers with a look at how to pose on the red carpet at the Film Experience

“Everybody's in this game,’ said Poland. ‘Does it really sustain that level of interest? The truth is, there's a very hardcore group of people who are really into this and I'm among them. I enjoy the whole prognostication thing and I find it interesting sport.’” – Jake Coyle talks to David Poland (and other familiar names) about the Oscar guru game for the AP

“My favorite among his suggestions is the Gary Busey Red Carpet. Hell yeah! Get rid of Regis, who’s about as boring as watching bread get moldy, and bring on the Busey action. He can show up drunk with his fly open, and attack all the talent as they make their walk up the red carpet. It'll be almost like adding a sporting event to the Oscars – duck and run from Gary Busey before he attacks your neck!” – Kim Voynar looks at some suggestions on how to improve the Oscar telecast at Cinematical

“Good gosh, there’s just no pleasing some people. You give ‘em pageantry and they complain that there's too much pageantry, it's too long, the pageantry is boring. You give ‘em brevity and you get Finke’s ‘This wasn’t an Oscars. This was a slightly longer version of the Golden Globes.’ Great. You know what. I really hope they do bring Pilobolus back next year.” – Glenn Kenny realizes there’s just no pleasing some people at Premiere

“As for the baffling placement throughout the show of the awards presentations, there's been no official explanation. It's understandable that they’d stagger the acting awards to keep people watching for three and a half hours, but the Supporting Actor or Actress award is usually the first one given, apparently to lull viewers into a false sense of urgency, as if other can't-miss awards will follow shortly, but wouldn’t it have made more sense to present Best Actor early, since there was no suspense in that race, and leave ‘til the end the nail-biter race between Julie Christie, Ellen Page, and eventual winner Marion Cotillard?” – Gary Susman answers some questions about what happened during the broadcast at Entertainment Weekly

“High among the reasons I could never be a full-time Oscar blogger: Pieces like this, in which awards authority Scott Feinberg runs down the slate of early hopefuls, and even makes a few predictions, for 2008’s Oscar crop. We’ll know what Feinberg hit or missed about 10 months from now, but even casual observers might browse the titles and wonder: What about the Coen brothers?” – S.T. VanAirsdale is concerned about the early predictions for next year at Vanity Fair

“And after the unadulterated run of success that has been our Oscar predicting thus far (almost half of the awards right, baby!), who are we not to weigh in on the 2009 Academy Awards? Vulture's picks for Best Picture: 1. ‘Doubt’ 2. ‘The Young Victoria’ 3. ‘Defiance’ 4. Some indie comedy no one's ever heard of yet, possibly from Sundance, definitely written by someone with a heartwarming and almost unbelievable story 5. Something terrible – maybe ‘Sex and the City?’” – The Vulture makes some predictions that sound about right to us at New York magazine

Jeffrey Wells and Sasha Stone on Oscar ratings… David Poland on the tech winners… David Carr talks to Peter Rice… Kristopher Tapley on Oscar surprises… The Vulture on Amy Adams… David Edelstein on Best Actor… Nathaniel Rogers and Karina Longworth on Oscar headlines… Cinematical on how Oscar can improve… S.T. VanAirsdale recaps his night

“The Oscar telecast audience last night was the lowest rated in history. A lousy 32 million viewers tuned in, which is a huge disaster considering that 95.5 million sports fans watched the Super Bowl earlier this month. This is the way of American culture – more and more followers of competitive games in which men on steroids try to take possession of a ball, and fewer and fewer true movie fans. I guess this means...what, ABC might earn a bit less in the way of ad revenues next year? I need to figure out why I'm supposed to care about this.” – Jeffrey Wells is unbothered by whether people actually care about the thing he spends half his year worrying about at Hollywood Elsewhere.

“History will look more kindly on these winners, though, than the years where the general crowdpleasers were honored. Having said that, I suspect the tide will soon turn with the Oscars leaning more towards the big studio movies and/or the awards-worthy crowdpleasers. The trouble is, the critics murder the Big Oscar Movies and thus, they haven’t a chance in the Oscar race these days and the awards appear to be going to the most worthy rather than the most popular.” – Sasha Stone also thinks its okay people don’t care at Awards Daily

“People shocked by ‘Transformers’ not bringing home The Gold are focusing, at least partially, on the wrong issue. Early word was that ILM would get behind ‘Transformers’ and not ‘Pirates’… but apparently, there was some split and the single focus Rhythm & Hues vote pushed ‘Golden Compass’ to the win. Also… I think general Oscar voters just didn’t want to vote for the big, dumb summer movie… which is not how the earlier ‘Pirates’ and ‘Rings’ films were seen. They are not analyzing effects.” – David Poland wraps up the tech categories at Movie City News

“Peter Rice, the Fox Searchlight honcho who watched happily as Diablo Cody took home a screenwriting Oscar for ‘Juno,’ isn’t buying into the whole Euro-trend story… ‘Two of the Europeans won for playing roles in Texas and one in California,’ he said. ‘It’s hard to get more American than that.’” – David Carr gets into the “international Oscars” idea at the New York Times

“There were surprises in store for some. Such as Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton taking the leading and supporting actress trophies, swooping in at the last minute to steal away the thunder of the night's frontrunners. Personally, I saw this coming, but no one could deny the possibility was there and the situations were ripe for upsets. Both speeches, by the way, were quite good. Cotillard was appropriately emotional (as was Diablo Cody, who even choked me up with her teary acceptance). Swinton, meanwhile, offered that Tilda charm and sass that has become something of a staple this season for the ‘Michael Clayton’ star.” – Kristopher Tapley is surprised by nothing at Variety

“Did Amy Adams insult Gil Cates’s mother or something? … the charming Adams was placed all alone on a bare stage in a single spotlight for her number. We would understand that, maybe, if the song was a torchy ballad. But the song was the light, fluffy ‘Happy Working Song,’ which is tolerable in the film only because its performance is accompanied by the sight gag of rats, pigeons, and cockroaches cleaning an apartment. What sadistic producer heard ‘Happy Working Song’ and thought, Let’s put Amy Adams onstage all by herself, but let’s give Kristin Chenoweth a lot of help for her number? Adams didn't do terribly, but she’s no Broadway star, and we felt kind of awful for her.” – The Vulture asks a question wondered by many at New York magazine

“Helen Mirren (maybe the most stunning presenter – take that, Jessica Alba) fluffed a very bad joke in a very bad intro but then ushered in the best moment of the night: Daniel Day-Lewis accepting his Oscar by kneeling before her. Yes, she’d played The Queen, but the gesture went deeper than that: It was the sincere tribute of one brave acting soul to another — and it had a nice symmetry, since at the New York Film Critics Circle dinner, Day-Lewis presented an award to Javier Bardem, who got down on his knees and genuflected. If that doesn’t make your heart leap … Then Day-Lewis said the script ‘sprang like a golden sapling out of the mad, beautiful head of Paul Thomas Anderson’ — and this time it was the sincere tribute of one beautiful madman to another.” – David Edelstein enjoys a moment at New York magazine

“On the subway to midtown I see the big splashy headlines on the NY Post or the daily news or one of those trashy cheap papers everyone reads. ‘Dull Show to Honor Movies No One Sees’ and I feel a little thumpy again. Now obviously these dailies are slow working gray matter poison for New Yorkers but sadly this attitude is widespread. There is never any context to these arguments about Oscar honoring ‘unpopular’ movies. It’s just knee-jerk bitching. Is it really Oscars fault that the studios won't even release half of these movies until after Oscar is honoring them? No. Do we really want the Oscars to be based on box office?” – Nathaniel Rogers reacts to the general reaction at the Film Experience

"Unlike other major papers, which mostly went with a cover shot of a resplendently emotional Marion Cotillard, the ever-classy New York Post puts ‘former stripper’ Diablo Cody on the cover of their Oscar morning-after edition, letting her outdated job description stand in for her name. And with THAT, the rags-to-riches transformation from strip club Cinderella to Oscar winner, as well as the little indie-choo-choo-that-could fiction that made it happen… Oh, and did we mention that the Post, like Fox Searchlight, the teeny-tiny independent company that made and released Juno, is owned by Rupert Murdoch? Vertically integrated corporate strategy is a beautiful thing." – Karina Longworth, conspiracy theorist and corporate watchdog, at Spout

"After they announced the second sound-related award last night, I turned to my friend and noted that they could’ve easily replaced one of these sound categories with something a little more fan-friendly. Or even if they want to stick with what they have, perhaps more people will watch if they have more say in how the awards show plays out. So in the spirit of brainstorming, what would be a good category to add to future Oscar telecasts? Best fanboy film? Best comedy? Or how about a viewer’s choice award? Would something like asking, ya know, actual paying moviegoers which film they liked the best take away from the epic-like ceremony?”" – Erik Davis wonders how to win back some viewers at Cinematical

"“As the host of a hopping annual Oscar party in Manhattan, I rarely have an optimal chance to view or listen to the awards show while bumping around the room. That’s the bad news. It’s also the good news, because between the total lack of surprise in virtually every category, Jon Stewart laughing at his own jokes, and overwrought filler montages exploiting 79 spotty years’ worth of previous winners, I never had the sense I was really missing anything. Some might disagree, but if it wasn’t for the Oscar pool I was losing on account of those dodgy technical awards (did Kevin O’Connell really come up short again?) and my ill-advised side bet that Tilda Swinton would not give her award to her agent, then I’d have had absolutely no horse in the race and would likely still be napping in coat check.”" –  S.T. VanAirsdale recaps his night at Vanity Fair

(Photo courtesy AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

David Poland on Oscar blogging… Anne Thompson on Cotillard and Swinton… Sasha Stone and David Carr on the winners… Johnny Alba and Nathaniel Rogers on the Cotillard… Glenn Kenny and S.T. Van Airsdale on “Juno” … Lou Lumenick and Alessandra Stanley on the broadcast… Jeffrey Wells on the Coens… Karina Longworth on Diablo Cody

“Liveblogging died today... as every monkey with a keyboard, Traditional Media or New, feels a need to comment minute-by-minute on a show that everyone gets to see live. It seems to me to be about the equivalent of reading a column about sex during sex. Methinks your ‘partner’ would be better served by a little concentration… The day of verbal diarrhea as a communications medium is coming to an end.” – David Poland with a post-show commentary on all the real-time commentary going on during the Oscar broadcast at Movie City News

“Well, you win some, you lose some. I did pretty well on my various Oscar pools, but I missed a lot. I failed to change to the Marion Cotillard horse when it was seemingly catching up to Julie Christie. Tilda Swinton put it very well backstage when the news broke. ‘Why are you glad she won?’ one reporter asked. Swinton replied, ‘She’s great, she’s new, she’s new blood in the gene pool.’” – Anne Thompson surveys her own picks at Variety

“It was a hell of a year, a great game to be sure. The only true headscratcher for me was Tilda Swinton. And it isn’t because I don’t think she didn’t deserve to win but just because I’m stunned that they didn’t award Ruby Dee and if not Ruby Dee at least Cate Blanchett or Amy Ryan. But what surprised me the most was that the hair-brained theory that ‘they want to give 'Michael Clayton' something’ was actually spot on! Again, not saying she didn’t deserve it but just that I didn’t think it was, well, a great choice for the prize. No one will complain, though, I suppose. And it also means that three of the four wins went to villains.” – Sasha Stone surveys the winners at Awards Daily

“Remember in first grade when everybody won a little something? If not first honors, then some kind of very special person award. This Oscars is feeling like that. Little ‘Atonement,’ we have original score award for you. And ‘There Will Be Blood?’ We have a cinematography award for you. ‘Juno,’ we see you, you little dickens back there. Here’s a screenplay win for you. Everybody is a winner here and there are no losers. Not a single movie has anything resembling coattails.” – David Carr surveys the winning tally at the New York Times

“As many of you know, I chose Marion Cotillard as my favorite performance of 2007 but I was sure AMPAS would deny her the Oscar due the foreign language barrier. I'm glad the voters got it right this year and chose the best among the very competitive lineup. Now, what’s next for the likeable Cotillard?” – Johnny Alba sees the upside in the Cotillard win at the Oscar Igloo

“Marion Cotillard’s win, which I confidently predicted without any personal joy, has left me strangely empty rather than angry. I guess after 'Brokeback' vs. 'Crash' I can handle anything. Nothing will be as embarrassing to the Academy / painful to me as that ever again. But still... I think it’d be so cool if the Oscars got away from biopics for awhile. It would really do the film world good to have more than one idea about what constitutes great acting. There are so many ways to express oneself in art. Why must they continually reward the same thing?” – Nathaniel Rogers sees no upside in awarding Cotillard at the Film Experience

“I think we took all that as well as could be expected. Cody’s speech was short enough to suggest she knew that her moment was gonna be at its inevitable end a little sooner than it might have been had she gotten too cute with it. ‘I’m learning from you...’ Learn harder.” – Glenn Kenny still feels the sting of the Cody backlash at Premiere

“All the hype, backlash, and backlash-to-the-backlash should be a not-so-fond memory within the next 48 hours, when ‘Juno’ hops off her hamburger phone and into her pumpkin carriage en route to rejoining the serviceable teen comedies scrubbing floors back at the Fox commissary.” – S.T. VanAirsdale sees the end of the road for the “Juno” bandwagon

“Many Americans probably tuned out of one of the dullest Oscar shows ever, safe in the knowledge that prohibitive favorite ‘No Country for Old Men’ won Best Picture at 11:45 p.m. While it’s certainly a worthy winner, a Weinstein-style campaign at a reported cost of $15 million certainly didn’t hurt. Nor did a controversial ending; of course, ‘There Will Be Blood’ also had one, while a third nominee, ‘Juno’ had a problematic first reel.” – Lou Lumenick surveys the winners at the New York Post

“It was as if they felt they needed an insurance policy against dullness. Yet for the most part, those flashbacks reminded viewers of what they were missing. And showing other actors’ memorable acceptance speeches – especially Cuba Gooding Jr.’s – seemed to leave the new winners self-conscious and subdued” – Alessandra Stanley wonders about the clip-heavy broadcast at the New York Times

“Joel and Ethan Coen, good fellows that they are, were a little too modest and self-effacing last night. Their personalities are their personalities, and that’s fine. But they’re clever writers with things on their minds, and for their acceptance speeches they could have written something that might have cut through to the marrow or acknowledged something other than the state of winning. Anything that might have made people say, ‘Wow...good words.’ But their attitude seemed to be ‘okay, we have to do this so let's be gracious...it'll all be over tomorrow morning and then we can get back to work.’ – Jeffrey Wells hopes for a little more from his friendos the Coen brothers at Hollywood Elsewhere

“Which I guess is all the better to, as Steven Zeitchik puts it, 'solidify their transition from cult directors to Oscar power players.' Because as Diablo Cody has taught us, you can’t win an Oscar without a narrative of upward mobility – and weirdness assimilation – for the publicists to latch on to.” – Karina Longworth just can’t resist one more dig at Diablo at Spout

David Poland, George Clooney (!), Anne Thompson, Jeffrey Wells, Sasha Stone and David Ansen make their Oscar predictions… Defamer on the “Juno” bandwagon… The Oscar Igloo on Best Actress… Karina Longworth on Hollywood’s string-pullers… David Carr is Oscar Crazy… Cinematical on youthful lust for Ellen Page… Indiewire on “The Counterfeiters” and Oscar night…The Vulture goes back to Julian Schnabel… The Playlist is thankful for a silent punditocracy.

“Journalists have been left spinning their wheels like gerbils in a show biz cage for weeks.  This week’s laugher is ‘Juno’ as the threat to ‘No Country.’ No way. God bless the film. God bless Peter Rice & Co, who delivered a mainstream comedy right out of ApatowVille that is not only the highest grossing film in Searchlight’s remarkable history, but which will come close to doubling the domestic gross of the #2 film, Sideways. But Oscar doesn’t give the award to non-showbiz comedies… It is likely to be as boring and pleasant an Oscar night as any in memory.” – David Poland takes a final look at the Oscar contenders at Movie City News

“I thought Daniel Day-Lewis had the best performance of the year. Then I saw ‘La Vie En Rose.’ Marion Cotillard does an old person trying to be young, instead of what everyone does – a young person trying to be old. It’s a stunning performance. But there is no way Daniel Day-Lewis won't win.” – George Clooney makes his own Oscar predictions at Time

“Surprisingly, George Clooney makes his picks in Time. He’s astute, but I don’t think supporting actress is Amy Ryan – it’s either Tilda Swinton or Cate Blanchett – and I’m sticking to my cockamamie Ronald Harwood theory in adapted screenplay. (Revealing your votes is supposed to be a no-no, but hey, Clooney can do whatever he wants.)” – Anne Thompson begs to differ with Clooney’s predix at Variety

“HE final, final Oscar predictions: BEST PICTURE: ‘No Country for Old Men,’ although I’d like credit for saying it’s vaguely possible that ‘Michael Clayton’ or ‘Juno’ could sneak a win. (Although it probably won’t happen.)” – Jeffrey Wells going out on a limb to hedge his bets at Hollywood Elsewhere

“I have been getting that funny feeling too but I can’t quite get a handle on it. Based on everything I’ve learned and everything I know about the Oscars, no other film has even a smidge of a chance to overtake ‘No Country for Old Men.’ Even ‘Crash’ had the SAG ensemble and the Editors. So far, the Eddie and the ASC are the only two significant guilds ‘No Country’ has lost. That is pretty much unheard of folks. If any other film wins on Sunday night you can just toss your rules out of the window because nothing will mean anything and there is no point to even looking at the past to decide the race.” – Sasha Stone takes a last-minute temperature reading at Awards Daily

“The conventional wisdom may not apply to a field filled with more than the usual share of unconventional movies. Mainstream commercial movies are barely a blip on the Academy Awards landscape. Little ‘Juno’ is by far the biggest hit among the five best-picture nominees, and the only one of the five that's considered a major studio movie, Warner Bros.’s ‘Michael Clayton,’ actually isn't: it was a pickup, financed by an outside company. The Oscars have become the Independent Spirit Awards on a bigger budget.” – David Ansen makes his picks at Newsweek

“While we seemingly hear the phrase ‘it’s the closest Oscar race in years’ each and every awards season, this year it might actually be true. No one movie stands out as a front-runner. ‘No Country For Old Men’ is confusing, ‘There Will Be Blood’ is looooong and grim, 6 people saw ‘Michael Clayton’ and ‘Atonement’ feels like an afterthought. That leaves ‘Juno.’ Just because you sit in your little Silverlake apartment hating on all that overwritten dialogue doesn’t mean the rest of the country didn't find it utterly charming.” – Nick Malis hops about “the ‘Juno’ train” at Defamer

“The real surprise of the category here was the inclusion of Laura Linney for her work in ‘The Savages.’ She was almost completely ignored by every single voting body except the Academy. That could mean that they really liked her performance and wanted to right a wrong. The fact that her film is also up for Best Original Screenplay means that it doesn’t necessarily have limited support, and she looms as the darkest horse in this race.” – Joey Magidson gives an overview of the Best Actress nominees at The Oscar Igloo

“Isn’t it a little weird that Variety editor Tim Gray doesn’t actually make a Best Picture prediction in the Best Picture prediction video? Does this give credence to the ‘‘Juno’ is the new ‘Crash’’ nightmare scenario that’s been floating around? Or is he just contractually not allowed to disappoint his advertisers?” – Karina Longworth wonders about the big picture at Spout

“Here’s the thing. Everybody can make like a sour ball before the event, but it has its own dynamism once Jon Stewart walks on stage. In what may be his longest bet of the season, but the Bagger is thinking this is going to be an oddly entertaining show with a lot of twists and turns. The lack of some of the precursor events creates mystery and, as red carpet host Robert Osborne recently said to him, should leave regular folks hungry for a little glitter and competition.” – David Carr officially has Oscar Fever at the New York Times

“If it’s believable that women would find Seth Rogen’s character in ‘Knocked Up’ sexually attractive, it's certainly plausible that high school guys would be hot for a smart girl like ‘Juno,’ even if she’s not a blond cheerleader with big boobs. What do you folks think? Do guys go for the smart, sassy, somewhat dorky chicks, even if they’re petite and perky rather than Hollywood-hot (whatever that is)?” – Kim Voynar goes after Jeff Wells pet theory regarding Ellen Page at Cinematical

“‘The Counterfeiters’ is the bread and butter of the Academy, not to mention film festival audiences everywhere, and as such, seems to have been designed solely to win plaudits: a Holocaust drama that effectively mixes raw, ‘realistic’ violence with a narrative of moral uplift that prizes individual strengths, inferring that overcoming is possible; a main character who’s just the right, ingratiating mix of stoic and rascally; a litany of latter-day Euro cinema-of-quality cliches predicated upon a central moral conundrum that grants the film its supposed complexity; a German filmmaker grappling with the demons of his own nation and family (Ruzowitzky's grandparents were Nazi collaborators) and daring to depict the impossible.” – Michael Koresky reviews a foreign language nominee at Indiewire

“In the end, I suppose all Oscar enthusiasts should be pleased with the simple fact that they'll be watching a fully-executed, picket-free ceremony Sunday night. And if a song from ‘Enchanted’ wins or a poorly-produced montage runs a little long, remember that you could have been watching Billy Bush announce the winners from the set of ‘Access Hollywood.’” – Peter Knegt finds a silver lining at Indiewire

“It’s tough to imagine this Oscar going to anyone but the Coens, but Paul Thomas Anderson and Julian Schnabel do have devoted followings. Plus, who doesn't want to see Schnabel accept an award in his pajamas?” – The Vulture can't quit Julian Schnabel at New York magazine

“Voting for the Academy Awards officially closed on Tuesday (or Wed at 12:00 a.m.) so at least we’ll get some respite to pundits thinking they can detect every [freaking] imperceptible shift in the wind over the collective conscious of Oscar voters, and lord hearing everyone chime in with their two cents gets to be rather infuriating after awhile.” The Playlist will be glad to be rid of Oscar prognosticators until next awards season (We know the feeling.)

David Poland on screeners… Jeffrey Wells on a “Juno” surge… Tapley on the Costume Designers Guild… The Oscar Igloo on short films… Nathaniel Rogers on Jack Fisk… Scott Feinberg and David Carr go looking for surprises… Anne Thompson runs some stats… James Rocchi on the Borgnine vote… Kim Voynar on Jon Stewart… Karina Longworth and the Vulture on Oscar viewers… S.T. VanAirsdale talks to Daniel Batsek… John Anderson talks to Ellen Page

“For the first time, The Academy membership could have the opportunity to see the films in contention is a format that is close to the quality of going to the movies. It is still not the same and will never replace it for me. But I think, even as HD died, Sony lost the opportunity this season of creating a block of ‘super delegates’ who would spread the gospel of Blu-ray (the same was true of HD when the season started). The people who get screeners are a group in which a high percentage could afford to buy the hardware.” – David Poland drags the whole high-definition home video debate into the Oscar screener issue at Movie City News

“A director friend, currently prepping a film in London, wrote me a four-word e-mail last night: ‘I’m hearing 'Juno' everywhere.’… I don’t believe it. I can’t believe it. How could ‘No Country’ win all those guild awards and not be the clear front-runner?” – Jeffrey Wells goes sniffing for an upset at HollywoodElsewhere

“The question lingering is, will Atwood turn the same trick at the Oscars? Not so fast. While Atwood has two Oscars to her credit (‘Chicago’ and ‘Memoirs of a Geisha’), she now has a whopping five trophies from the guild, adding ‘Lemony Snicket’s a Series of Unfortunate Events,’ ‘Sleepy Hollow’ and, now, ‘Sweeney’ to the list. The guild clearly loves her, having even nominated her for ‘Planet of the Apes’ in 2000.” – Kristopher Tapley does not expect the Costume Designers Guild to match up with Oscar at Variety

“In the animated category, I suspect the boomer nostalgia for ‘I Met the Walrus’ with triumph over ‘Peter and the Wolf,’ a better film by far. Though the race looks to be between those two films,  ‘Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis’ still has an outside shot of winning, as the Academy tends to like their shorts funny… Despite the fact that it was a terrible film, ‘At Night’ has a big chance of winning this category because it is longest and has the most ‘important’ topic (cancer). ‘The Tonto Woman’ also has a good chance of winning because it actually deserves it, and the Academy likes to award great films (even if the don’t sometimes).” – Josh Kirschenbaum gets into the Oscar-pool spoiling short film categories

“That Jack Fisk, art director extraordinaire (‘There Will Be Blood’) is married to Sissy Spacek. And that’s not all. That they’ve been married since...1974. They were in their 20s and they're still together. I wonder if they met on ‘Badlands’ (1973)? – they’ve worked on several of the same projects including a personal favorite, ‘Carrie.’ Y’all know I love that one. I have no idea why this particular nugget of info has captivated me all week. But it has. I suspect he might win the Oscar this coming weekend.” – Nathaniel Rogers finds something new to obsess over at the Film Experience

“We’re at that time right before the Oscars when it’s easy to second-guess the frontrunners... usually without much cause. Still, there are a few possible upset scenarios to which I believe we are not giving fair consideration. By no means am I saying that all – or even any – of these are going to play out, but I’m not sure we should be totally shocked if they do. Consider a few of these in the form of a headline we might read on Monday morning and then ask yourself if they really sound as absurd as we have been treating them...” – Scott Feinberg lays out some “What If?” scenarios for Sunday at And The Winner Is

“Anton Chigurh wasn’t the only one flipping coins this year. A lot of people are going to be wrong about a lot of things, including the prediction that this is going to be an off-year Oscars. The Bagger is looking for hijinks, a looser vibe that will lead to the kind of moments we tune in for in the first place.” – David Carr is hoping for some “What If” scenarios at the New York Times

“This is the week when every self-respecting film critic understands that Oscars are what readers are interested in – it’s Hollywood's big night at the movies... Neither movie fans nor critics are accurate forecasters of who will win the Oscar race. The winners on February 24 are determined by a specific group – 5829 Academy voters – who may be influenced a tad by boxoffice success or by critics’ prizes, but actually vote their own taste, which is neither monolithic nor entirely predictable. Those of us who read the tea leaves carefully, year after year, can come close, but there are always surprises.” – Anne Thompson gets into some Oscar stats at Variety

“It’s hard to get a statistical breakdown of the Academy’s membership, but over the years I've formed a mental picture of the Academy’s average member. He’s male; he’s been in show business for decades, usually as an actor; he’s wealthy enough to be ‘liberal’; he’s white. He sees the nominated films at home, on screeners, possibly while enjoying a sandwich, instead of in the theater… In short, Ernest Borgnine.” – James Rocchi makes some predictions at Cinematical

“While on the one hand I was kind of holding out for the strike to last past the Oscars, if only to spare myself having to liveblog the event, on the other hand I do like Stewart very much, and of anyone who could be hosting the Oscars this year, I think he’s the most likely to make them at least moderately entertaining. Okay, I'll settle for ‘not painful to watch.’” – Kim Voynar feels okay about Jon Stewart at Cinematical

“Oscar producers are worried that the alleged inaccessibility of this year’s major nominees will have a negative impact on the telecast’s ratings. But how could that be, when the Best Picture nominees are so full of memorable catchprases? ‘I drink your milkshake!’ ‘Homeskillet doodle blog!’ ‘I am putting my scruples aside in order to blackmail you in the name of the greater good,’ or whatever George Clooney says at the end of 'Michael Clayton'!” – Karina Longworth digs into the “will anyone watch?” question at Spout

“Luckily, it doesn't matter, because this year’s Oscar show will only be watched by entertainment bloggers and the parents of nominees, says Variety… Well, they don’t exactly say that – being Variety, they try to stay a lot more positive – but when even Variety is forced to hedge its bets on the Oscars’ popularity, you know things are gonna be brutal.” – The Vulture seems unruffled by the presumably low numbers at New York magazine

“The selection panel for the foreign language Oscar are often characterized as old and out of touch, yet whether or not this is true every year the five films chosen as nominees are, without fail, a total surprise. It is the one category where people watching the films seem to judge them based purely on their reaction, rather than being swayed by a film’s percentage rating on Rotten Tomatoes, box office takings or, most significantly, huge billboards or ads in Variety shouting ‘For Your Consideration.’” – Nick Dawson takes the opposing view on the foreign language nominations at Filmmaker magazine

“‘People are talking about it a lot, but I don’t think that’s borne out in what people have been to see,’ [Batsek] told me. ‘If you look at ‘No Country for Old Men,’ we’re over $60 million now. That’s a lot of people going, that’s a lot of great word-of-mouth. And I think if people are entertained by ‘The Godfather,’ by ‘The Silence of the Lambs,’ by ‘Apocalypse Now’ … I mean, those were dark movies, but they were they were incredibly entertaining. I think the same is true of ‘No Country’ and ‘There Will Be Blood.’” – Daniel Batsek, head of Miramax, talks to S.T. VanAirsdale about the whole “dark and violent” issue at Vanity Fair

“‘I call myself a feminist when people ask me if I am, and of course I am ’cause it’s about equality, so I hope everyone is. You know you’re working in a patriarchal society when the word feminist has a weird connotation. ‘Hippie’ has a weird connotation. ‘Liberal’ has a weird connotation.’” – Ellen Page talks to John Anderson at the Washington Post

(Photo courtesy Doane Gregory / Fox Searchlight)

David Poland on the Gurus o’ Gold… David Edelstein’s Oscar predix… Jeffrey Wells on Edelstein… Glenn Kenny on Best Actress… Kristopher Tapley on the Season… Sasha Stone on Tapley… Sara Vilkomerson talks to Mark Harris… David Carr on Scott Feinberg… Anne Thompson’s picks… Lou Lumenick’s picks… Variety on Oscar ratings… Bill Carter talks to Jon Stewart

“Amazingly, it's been almost a month since we last polled the Gurus o’ Gold, right after Nominations were announced. So something must have changed, right? Wrong!... The only film in the Top 2 of any category to move as much as 2 slots was 'Bourne,' driven by its A.C.E. win. We can only hope that The Academy will be more adventurous. If The Gurus are right, 'No Country For Old Men' wins 8 Oscars and 'There Will Be Blood' will be the #2 winner by count... with two Oscars.” – David Poland recaps the final Gurus chart at Movie City News

“Unless … unless … ‘No Country’ and ‘There Will Be Blood’ split the nihilist-horror vote and little old edgy feel-good smash hit ‘Juno’ sneaks in. As one of the few critics to dislike ‘Juno,’ I would be devastated – but weirder things have happened in these silly awards. Or is the ‘Juno’ backlash too strong? Or is there, as my New York colleagues have suggested, a backlash against the backlash?” – David Edelstein begins his Oscar predictions at New York Magazine

“First Feinberg, now Edelstein! Another flying- [leap]-at-a-rolling-donut scenario, I mean, in which the likable-but-equally- dreaded ‘Juno’ may win the Best Picture Oscar.” – Jeffrey Wells responds to Edelstein at Hollywood Elsewhere

“By the way, I was amused recently when one Oscar commenter tsked-tsked schmooze-averse Christie by saying that her ‘Roman Polanski-esque non-campaign’ was gonna doom her chances. Polanski was literally incapable of campaigning…and he won anyway.” – Glenn Kenny gauges the Best Actress race at Premiere

“This is a new Academy. This is an Academy suddenly, and in spite of its past behavior, concerned with its image in the film community. The group is clearly prone to the pressures of the critical conglomeration, and, perhaps more so, willing to pander to flavor-of-the-moth popularity.” – Kristopher Tapley goes for the big picture at In Contention

“While the story ain’t over yet, and upset predictions are blooming throughout the net, one blogger is fairly certain that ‘No Country’ will win, and he admits that he thought it had no chance back when the race first started… But if there was to be an upset, Tapley says it’s most likely going to be ‘There Will be Blood’ and not ‘Clayton’ or ‘Juno.’” – Sasha Stone reacts to Tapley’s overview at Awards Daily

“No matter the outcome, this Sunday’s broadcast should prove to be an interesting one, since unlike past years (cough, ‘Crash’) each of the nominees for Best Picture are deserving, as were plenty of other movies (‘Into the Wild,’ ‘Zodiac,’ ‘The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,’ ‘Away From Her,’ ‘I’m Not There’). Mr. Harris pointed out that 18 different movies received nominations for acting – a far cry from the day when all the voters had to choose from was Titanic or Titanic.” – Sara Vilkomerson talks to EW’s Mark Harris at the New York Observer

“Even in the homestretch – Oscar ballots are due today – some people are having trouble generating enthusiasm about this year’s race. Scott Feinberg is not one of them. As the overlord of the And the Winner Is … blog he has covered every wiggle and wobble in the race, some real and some imagined, and spends a great deal of time reporting, which is breathtakingly uncommon in the blog world… So there is a logic driving Mr. Feinberg’s choice, but the Bagger thinks he overthinks, which is something that happens quite often around Oscar-town this time of year.” – David Carr kicks the tires on Scott Feinberg’s “Juno” prediction at the New York Times

“Oscar voters are likely to parcel out some wins for other movies too. I’m betting the Coens win picture and director and not adapted screenplay (Ronald Harwood could steal it for ‘The Diving Bell and the Butterfly’) and editing (as Roderick Jaynes). The movie could also pick up Javier Bardem and a sound award or two. I also don’t buy into the thesis that ‘No Country for Old Men’ and ‘There Will Be Blood’ will cancel each other out.” – Anne Thompson previews her picks at Variety

“In fact, it looks like it’s going to be one of the dullest Oscar shows ever. Absolutely nothing has happened in the Oscar race since the predictable ‘Juno’ backlash a few weeks ago, so it looks like Fox Searchlight will have to settle for a Best Original Screenplay Oscar, and becoming their $7.5 million wonder becoming platform release since ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding.’ With the writers’ strike providing a major distraction, Oscar bloggers have been going crazy trying to find something to write about since there is but one true ‘race’ in all eight major categories – Best Supporting Actress, where the favored Cate Blanchett could be upset by Marion Cotillard, Ruby Dee or Tilda Swinton.” – Lou Lumenick should offer readers a prize for tracking his convoluted logic and spotting the inaccuracies within his Oscar predictions at the New York Post

“Folks in Hollywood are rallying behind Sunday’s Oscarcast with renewed passion after prolonged fears about its strike-stricken fate… But will the film biz’s fervor extend to the rest of the world's TV viewers?” – Rick Kissell gets into the potential ratings for the Oscar broadcast at Variety

“[Jon Stewart] said he had to remember that for the people in the first 20 rows of the audience, ‘this is the pinnacle of their careers’…. He added: ‘Their lives could change, and they’re very on edge. So you’ve got to give respect to the fact that this is the most important night in film. But for the audience at home, you also have to let them in on the fact that it’s still film. It’s not war; it’s not cancer. No one’s going to come out of it and say, ‘My God, I can walk!’” – Bill Carter talks to Jon Stewart about the post-strike preparations for the Oscar show at the New York Times

(Photo courtesy Jasin Boland / Universal Studios)

Sasha Stone on Supporting Actress … The Oscar Igloo and Glenn Kenny on the Screenplay races… Kristopher Tapley at the ACE awards… David Carr on the deeper meaning of Oscar… Scott Feinberg still pushing for “Juno”… Anne Thompson on Oscar weekend’s social calendar… Cinematical’s Oscar picks… David Denby on the Coens… Jeffery Wells retorts

“It was a relatively weak year for actresses all the way around. This was the year for men to express their opinions about the world and their place in it. It has never felt more unwelcome for women in many ways but most especially in terms of box office and the Oscars. It feels strange, for instance, that Jennifer Garner was shut out of this race when, to me, she was the best thing about ‘Juno,’ or certainly one of the best things. Catherine Keener, who was just wonderful, along with Kristen Stewart in ‘Into the Wild’ should have been represented here.” – Sasha Stone looks at the year in supporting actresses at Awards Daily

“It is interesting that in a year when so much attention is on the writers (due to the recently concluded WGA strike), we have such a boring race in the screenplay categories. The Coen brothers look like a lock in the adapted screenplay race while Diablo Cody is equally likely to win the original screenplay Oscar. There is always the possibility of an upset, even in the most predictable categories. There are a few contenders that could possibly take the Oscar from one of the aforementioned frontrunners.” – Josh Kirschenbaum looks at the year’s screenplay race at The Oscar Igloo

“A mutual acquaintance of ours emerged from the Toronto Film Festival screening of ‘Juno’ fuming about Diablo Cody’s opportunistic usage of every device/reference/made-up slang-term a first-time screenwriter would pull out, better to impress an agent, and despite kind of liking the picture myself, I couldn’t disagree with him. And now the [darn] thing’s gone all the way to the Oscars. Has there ever been a backlash both so inevitable and richly deserved? I don’t know. It hasn’t yet gotten to the point that I’m guilty about my own more positive take on the film…but gimme another day or so.” – Glenn Kenny also looks at the screenplay nominees at Premiere

“Christopher Rouse pulled off a quasi-surprise (to those expecting a near sweep for ‘No Country for Old Men’ through the guilds circuit), winning in the dramatic feature category for his work on ‘The Bourne Ultimatum.’… Word has it that it was a landslide victory, and I have to say, the room seemed more than enthused by the work that went into putting together Paul Greengrass’ summer thrill-ride.  Just before actress Julie Benz read off Rouse's name, a few people in the crowd shouted out ‘Bourne!’” – Kristopher Tapley attended the ACE awards at Variety

“The Bagger was asked to explain his fascination with the Oscars the other day and he felt as if he had been outed as a fan of show tunes or heirloom Fiesta table settings. The really embarrassing thing is that he not only enjoys the Oscars, he cares about them — more, probably, than he should… We all know that the Oscars are a dirty not-so-little pleasure. We pretend to watch them ironically, but they really are beyond the reach of irony.” – David Carr tries to explain why Oscar matters at the New York Times

“So, if not ‘No Country,’ then who? The anti-‘No Country’ vote may exceed the pro-‘No Country,’ but does any single rival inspire enough passion to take it down? The one with the best shot is the one that couldn’t be more different, ‘Juno,’ not ‘Blood’ (which appeals to the same core audience and will therefore draw from the same pool of voters), not ‘Clayton’ (which engenders respect but not excitement), and not ‘Atonement’ (which fits the old Best Picture model, not the new).” – Scott Feinberg won’t give up on “Juno” at And The Winner Is

“Good luck on Oscar night if you don't get a ticket to the Governor’s Ball. Most of the action will be beforehand at parties given by Miramax and Paramount Vantage, the Indie Spirits and the IFC after-party, and BAFTA.” – Anne Thompson preps your Oscar-weekend calendar at Variety

“Cinematical’s staff was pretty unified on our predictions this year. We asked our staff to pick who they think will actually win (as opposed to who they'd personally like to see win), and in several of the categories (Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay) the votes were unanimous. In fact, the only category in which we didn't have pretty good consensus was Best Supporting Actress, which I think reflects the ambiguous feelings a lot of folks have about that particular field this year.” – Kim Voynar introduces the staff Oscar picks at Cinematical

“The spooky-chic way the Coens use Bardem has excited audiences with a tingling sense of the uncanny. But, in the end, the movie’s despair is unearned – it’s far too dependent on an arbitrarily manipulated plot and some very old-fashioned junk mechanics. ‘No Country’ is the Coens’ most accomplished achievement in craft, with many stunning sequences, but there are absences in it that hollow out the movie’s attempt at greatness.” – David Denby with a give-and-take overview of the Coen Brothers’ career at the New Yorker

“My God, those are the same beefs levelled against the ending of the film last May when it first showed at Cannes! Perceptions evolve, you move past, the fog lifts… The last 20 minutes of ‘No Country’ are about gathering forces and the tentacles of fate reaching round and grasping with unstoppable force. The movie becomes destiny itself – that thing you can’t see coming and can't stop. It assumes the shape and inevitability of night. It becomes, in short, God-like, which is to say terrible, impassive, cruel. It isn’t very comforting (except in the words of Mr. Jones as he speaks of his dear departed father), but man, it sure holds you in its grip.” – Jeffrey Wells responds to the negative side of Denby’s critique at Hollywood Elsewhere

Sasha Stone and Kristopher Tapley on the end of the race… Jeffrey Wells on Oscar moments… Daniel Kenealy on Best Actor… Ryan Adams on the Oscar “boost”… Richard Corliss on Oscar bigger meaning… The Vulture on Oscar presenters… Anne Thompson on Oscar odds… Cinematical on the “Juno” backlash… The Oscar Igloo on the lookout for upsets… David Carr on the season… S.T. VanAirsdale on “Atonement”’s magic word… The Playlist on Jonny

“And therewith, we all but close the Guild chapter of the awards race. The Motion Picture Sound Editors remain (they announce Feb. 23) and the Costume Design guild as well. ‘No Country’ took nearly all but for the ASC (cinematographers) and the editors. Let’s see what happens at the Oscars. Just one week.” – Sasha Stone notes that the race is nearly run at Awards Daily

“The occasion marks only the second miss for ‘No Country for Old Men’ during the guild circuit (the other being with the cinematographers last month) as the Coen brothers’ composite ‘Roderick Jaynes’ has yet to be embraced by the editing community.” – Kristopher Tapley on the announcement of the ACE awards at Variety

“In a 2.17 N.Y. Times piece about some especially memorable Oscar moments, Anita Gates' list of big surprises somehow omits Roman Polanski’s winning the Best Director Oscar for ‘The Pianist’ in ‘03. That was stunning. I'll never forget it as long as I live.” – Jeffrey Wells recalls a favorite Oscar moment at Hollywood Elsewhere

“The race for Best Actor really is over and done with, and anybody who suggests otherwise is guilty of fostering competition for the sake of it. Let us have our debates about Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. And indeed let us have our debates about who may or may not deserve to win the lead actor Oscar. But let us not indulge in fantasy scenarios for the hell of it. The time for such speculation has come and gone.” – Daniel Kenealy sees at least one category as all sewn up at Awards Daily

“Since 3 of the top 12 boostiest movies are from the past 3 years, it’s obvious that a lot of the apparent Oscar Boost effect can be attributed to the recent trend of last-minute limited release dates (a la ‘Million Dollar Baby’ and ‘Letters from Iwo Jima’). While Paul Thomas Anderson clearly intended an homage to films of Houston and Kubrick, it looks like Paramount/Vantage has effectively pulled off an homage to Clint Eastwood’s marketing savvy.” – Ryan Adams digs into the causes of “The Oscar Boost” at Awards Daily

“So is the Academy Award a long-term guarantee of a film's quality, a leading indicator of acting excellence? Not really…Too often, though, the Academy has rewarded films at the high end of mediocrity, operating within a narrow band of reassuring realism. They're called ‘movies of quality,’ which really means movies of piety.” – Richard Corliss looks at the bigger picture of Oscar at Time

“Joining the Rock among the head-scratchers is Miley Cyrus, although at least she's in a current hit movie, unlike the Rock. Maybe he's there to introduce a montage. We hope that, in honor of ‘Southland Tales,’ it's a tribute to the ‘All-Time Greatest WTF? Moments in Cinema.’” – The Vulture joins the chorus of confusion over this year’s Oscar presenters at New York magazine

“My sense is that Hal Holbrook and Tom Wilkinson are stronger than Casey Affleck. And I'd put Tilda Swinton ahead of the other supporting actresses looking to unseat Blanchett. Not just because of the BAFTA home court win but because someone's got to win something for the very popular 'Michael Clayton.' And she's a Brit. The Academy loves classy Brits.” – Anne Thompson surveys the oddsmakers at Variety

“The ‘Juno’ phenom has got all due analysis from every possible angle. Cinematical's Ryan Stewart tried to calm us Juno-haters by insisting that ‘Juno’ was certainly a little movie; perhaps that will be some consolation when ‘Juno’ wins that Best Original Screenplay Oscar a week from Sunday (the safest Oscar prediction you could make). Despite the charm of Ms. Page, and the arguable indie cred, there's still holdouts. I still think ‘Juno’ was a sustained onslaught of alterna-cuteness so pitiless that it makes the very follicles of the hair ache.” – Richard von Busack serves up the “Juno” backlash debate one more time at Cinematical

“However, it’s exceedingly rare that there isn’t at least one huge upset, and we have become relatively comfortable with the list of predicted winners thanks to some mostly repetitive precursors. We mustn’t forget that the Oscars have an uncanny ability to surprise us, and perhaps it’s time to re-evaluate just how much of a sure thing some contenders are.” – Myles Hughes goes looking for possible upsets at The Oscar Igloo

“This year is different, in part because of the run-up and in part because of the context. Is it really any surprise that, amid the most competitive presidential primary season in half a century, the battle for best supporting actress seems of less than an issue of significant cultural moment?” – David Carr takes a temperature reading of the year in Oscar at the New York Times

“As bored and annoyed as I was with ‘Atonement’’s overwrought, Oscar-chasing, aren’t-they-beautiful-are-you-crying-yet period epic, few moments gave me more moviegoing satisfaction in 2007 than seeing a close-up of the C-word hammered out three times on a manual typewriter by groundskeeper Robbie (James McAvoy).” –- S.T. VanAirsdale takes pleasure where he can at Vanity Fair

“He may have been deemed ineligible for an Oscar nomination and he may have been snubbed by his own (Brit-run) BAFTA awards. But Jonny Greenwood has finally won something for his eerie and majestic score for Paul Thomas Anderson's ‘There Will Be Blood.’” – The Playlist notes an award from the Berlin Film Festival

“I try to provide a high quality creative year round service of entertainment about entertainment but as the site has grown in popularity the expenses are eating your host / editor / writer / creative director alive. Nathaniel (c'est moi) foots the bill himself and he's hurting. So be kind.” – Nathaniel Rogers is something of a victim of his own success at the Film Experience

David Poland has more campaign rules… Kristopher Tapley and Jeffrey Wells on a recent “Robert Ford” ad… Sasha Stone pulls the plug on the “Clayton” surge… David Carr on the time of the season… Nathaniel Rogers on “Enchanted” singers… Scott Feinberg on the BAFTAs best actress… Vanity Fair on “Blood”… Caryn James on the doc year… Mark Harris compares Oscars 1968 to 2008.

“This is becoming one of my pet peeves in experiencing each Oscar season. People go nuts trying to get a nomination and then relax once they get it. Ad budgets – for most – get reduced, publicity efforts are less intense, and there is a vague sense that once the nominations are set, the campaign is over and it’s about the movies… But it’s not true.” – David Poland busts out his second set of campaign rules, including this one about “Phase 2” at Movie City News

“To my mind, it is the sweetest FYC ad I’ve seen this year, which may or may not have something to do with the fact that ‘The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford’ is my favorite flick of the season.  But I like the feel of this ad and would have liked to have seen more of this throughout the film’s campaign” – Kristopher Tapley notices a recent campaign ad at Variety

“This ‘Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford’ ad on behalf of Best Supporting Actor nominee Casey Affleck is perhaps the best of its kind seen all season. In no small part because it’s in keeping with the aura and tone of the film itself… It would take four to six hours of calling the Soviet Republic of Warner Bros. to begin to get some kind of answer about who the creative hands were so let’s not, but sincere congrats to whomever the geniuses are.” – Jeffrey Wells picks up on it too

“Tell me, what has ‘Michael Clayton’ won? Anything? One single thing? George Clooney has won a few times; Tilda Swinton has won a few times and that’s it, babies. Never say never, it’s true. But ‘Michael Clayton’ has one bad mark against it — it bombed at the box office… Even 'There Will Be Blood’ is sitting in a better place; in fact, ‘Atonement,’ even without a director’s nom has a better shot because it won the Globe for drama. ‘Juno’ is the real wild card to upset the ‘No Country’ juggernaut and take its place in Oscar history. At least Haggis will finally get a break, eh?” – Sasha Stone has her doubts about the perceived possibility of a “Michael Clayton” surge at Awards Daily

“We are at the height of the silly season and it has been a pretty boring race so far, so the pot will be stirred.” – David Carr notes why all these alternate theories are suddenly popping up the New York Times

“I couldn’t possibly be happier about this announcement. There’s probably only one woman in Hollywood that’s closer to a living girlie cartoon than Amy Adams, and that's Kristin.” – Nathaniel Rogers responds to the announcement that both Amy Adams and Kristin Chenoweth will be performing songs from “Enchanted” at the Oscars at the Film Experience

“The stunning-as-always Cotillard was, like most pundits, visibly shocked upon hearing her name called. Unfortunately, she was never quite able to collect herself and bumbled her way through her remarks at the podium. While this was cute for BAFTA, I hope someone has since sat down with her to help prepare a real acceptance speech in case she pulls off the same shocker at the Oscars.” – Scott Feinberg still looking for Oscar meaning in the BAFTA awards at And The Winner Is

“An epic that flirts with the film à clef form but doesn’t quite fit it, ‘There Will Be Blood’ is one of those rare movies that offers a virtual galaxy of room for critical interpretation. Seemingly everyone I know has a passionate analysis of, or wild hypothesis about, the film and its sphinx-like protagonist, Daniel Plainview… One of the many questions that’s been asked about the movie regards Plainview’s sexuality, or lack thereof. Is he simply asexual? Gay? Petrosexual? Women don’t seem to be a factor in Plainview’s world.” – Christopher Bateman wonders about “Blood”’s Daniel Plainview at Vanity Fair

“This year all five nominees are politically charged, four are about war, and amazingly, only one feels like homework. Spurred by global conflict and by technology that allows filmmakers to turn out movies in months rather than years, these works carry urgent messages. With their pointed arguments, though, this year’s nominees also raise an inescapable question: Can they have any real political impact?” – Caryn James looks at the year’s documentary nominees at the New York Times

“Well, not that Oscar handicappers need or want lessons from me. But I think one thing to remember is that Academy voters are often more willing to reach out to innovative or forward-looking films in the nomination stage than people give them credit for being. In '68, that meant a huge number of nominations for 'Bonnie and Clyde,' which had been the subject of a bitter months-long critical dispute, and 'The Graduate,' which was the emblematic movie of the Generation Gap… But when it comes to the awards themselves (as opposed to the nominations), voters tend to go toward the middle ground… The thing is, this year, I don't think anybody knows what the ‘middle ground’ is. ‘Juno’? ‘Michael Clayton’? ‘No Country For Old Men’?” – Mark Harris compares this year's Oscars to 1968 at Entertainment Weekly