The season of upsets

So here's the thing, naysayers, party-poopers, safe-bettors.

Herbie Hancock recently pulled off the upset of all upsets, winning the best album Grammy for a jazz riff on Joni Mitchell that sold only 40,000 copies.

The New York Giants rolled over the "invincible" Patriots to triumph in the Super Bowl.

For the first time in its 100-year history, an underdog triumphed when a lowly beagle named Uno became numero uno in the Westminster Dog Show. A beagle!

Republican maverick John McCain's presidential campaign was declared dead in the water just last June, and now he is going to be the GOP nominee.

And Barack Obama has defied all odds and predictions and seems to be well on his way to the Democratic nomination.

And if he doesn't get it, the nominee will be a woman!

Something's definitely in the air, so could the long-shot cloud be headed for the Kodak Theatre next?


Can "Juno" win best picture? Laura Linney, best actress? Julian Schnabel , best director? Hell, how about "Norbit" for makeup?

Uh, probably not, but now that the ballots are actually being counted, there seem to be rumblings in the blogosphere and other quarters that Oscar is getting ready for a big surprise Sunday night.

How much that talk has to do with drumming up interest in the big show or just simply the burn-out factor now circling the race is a big question. Some bored prognosticators (probably just to amuse themselves) are over-analyzing the whole thing, throwing all the cards up in the air and seeing where they land.

And whenever this happens, the ubiquitous name "Crash" can't be far behind. Employing the rare example of that infamous 2005 best picture victory over widely favored "Brokeback Mountain," are backers of "Juno" (which with a $125-million gross so far is easily the most popular and accessible picture in the running) trying to say the academy is going to find its way out of the darkness of "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" to anoint a teen-centric movie with heart and hope as the first pure comedy to win best picture since "Annie Hall"?

Good luck. The tide – and the votes – are in, and anything other than the guilds and critics favorite, "No Country for Old Men," would be a major upset.

With "Crash," it was clear in talking to voters in the week leading up to the ceremony that a tidal wave of support was taking place. It was overwhelming and hard to believe, since "Brokeback" had been so dominant.

But it was real.

This year there appears to be reasonable levels of best picture support for multiple films, including "Juno" and especially "Michael Clayton," even a fairly strong pro- "There Will Be Blood" faction, but most likely not enough for one or the other to overcome the leading advantage of "No Country."

Unless you believe, that is, in the kind of miracles that have been happening lately in Super Bowls, dog shows, presidential primaries, etc.

Clearly, hope reigns supreme over at Fox Searchlight, where they are chanting their mantra:

If it can happen to Uno,