DGA decision time

Hollywood holds its breath on the eve of Tuesday's announcement of who'll be nominated by the Directors' Guild of America.

Not only is the prize highly valued among showbiz's most important kudos, but it points the direction toward what will happen in the top two Oscar races: director and picture.

No helmer has ever won the Oscar without being a DGA nominee. Only 6 times over 53 years have DGA winners failed to win the same prize at the Oscar voters. Ron Howard ("Apollo 13") and Steven Spielberg ("The Color Purple") were the only DGA winners who didn't receive nominations at the Oscars. Over the past 35 years, only one movie won best picture at the Oscars without a guild bid: "Driving Miss Daisy."

So who's ahead for this year? Three directors seem like safe bets.

Martin Scorsese ("The Departed")
Scorsese's clearly the frontrunner to win both DGA and the Oscar. The esteemed veteran hasn't won either award in the past (6 DGA losses, 7 Oscar defeats), although he reaped an honorary DGA award in 2002.

Bill Condon ("Dreamgirls")
Since "Dreamgirls" is "Departed's" chief competition to win best picture at the Oscars, Bill Condon will probably make the DGA cut, too. He hasn't been nominated as a helmer by either group, but did win an Oscar for penning "Gods and Monsters." He has a good shot to win the guild prize considering Rob Marshall -- who directed another musical written by Condon, "Chicago" -- beat both Martin Scorsese ("Gangs of New York") and the contender who ended up winning best director at the Oscars: Roman Polanski ("The Pianist").

Clint Eastwood ("Letters from Iwo Jima," "Flags of Our Fathers")
Industry favorite Clint Eastwood seems likely to be nominated, too, but for which film? "Flags of Our Fathers" was well received, but didn't live up to extravagant expectations. "Letters from Iwo Jima" picked up lots of critics awards, but it probably came out too late in the year for DGA members to see it.

That's a key point to consider when weighing DGA possibilities. Voters can't receive DVD screeners. The guild's 13,000 members must attend industry screenings or public viewings at theaters.

Voters receive nomination ballots the first week of December and must have them mailed in by early January. Most ballots were probably returned by the third week of December -- just as "Iwo Jima" opened in limited run at a few theaters in New York and L.A. DGA members are nationwide, many located in cities that don't feature frequent screenings.

A few years ago voters turned out to see Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby," which was released in late December, too, but that featured much-hyped performances by big stars like Eastwood, Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman. It's less likely that guild members will rush out to see a Japanese-language film that makes Americans look like the bad guys at a World War II battle that the U.S. won.

However, if Eastwood gets nominated for both, that hikes his chances to beat Scorsese. Only two directors have been nominated twice in the same year by DGA and both won: Francis Ford Coppola (won for "The Godfather, Part II," also nommed for "The Conversation") and Steven Soderbergh (won for "Traffic," also nommed for "Erin Brockovich").

Sometimes the guild members like to demonstrate their artistic sense by nominating non-Americans who helmed foreign-language films. That phenomenon happens more frequently at the Oscars, but occasional outlanders like Roberto Begnini ("Life Is Beautiful") get in. Ang Lee ("Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon") even won.