Grammy guessing

Can Mariah complete her comeback? Will Coldplay end up in deep freeze? Sizing up the toughest show around.

By Tom O’Neil, The Envelope, The Envelope

November 1, 2005

Mimi may be emancipated at last, but will she be locked out of the top Grammy races?

With secret Grammy committees about to huddle for the first round of voting on this year's nominations, Mariah Carey and her comeback album, "The Emancipation of Mimi," are sure to be a major topics of discussion.

It's not that voters don't consider Carey Grammy-worthy. She was named best new artist in 1990, after all, and has received occasional nominations over the years.

But Carey has never nabbed any of the other top awards: album, record or song of the year.

Some uppity critics say that's because she's a pop tart, not a serious artist. Still, Mariah's had a serious impact on 2005, when her return to chart-topping form has been one of the industry's biggest stories.

Predicting nominees of the major Grammy match-ups is the hardest job around for devoted awards watchers. (One year ago, who even knew that Ray Charles and Norah Jones had a duet eligible for record of the year? Then the track ended up winning.)

The first round of voting is shrouded in mystery. Contenders for best album, record, song and new artist are chosen by a committee of 25 unnamed industry types, who pick the final five nominees in each category from a list of the top 20 vote-getters as decided by the recording academy's general membership.

The committee makes a point of trying to acknowledge a broad span of musical tastes. It also loves to throw in some highbrow surprises, like a White Stripes, a Diana Krall or a Radiohead.

So who will likely make the mix this year when nominees are unveiled on Dec. 8?

Some Grammy pundits believe Carey's "Mimi" will score one or two top bids; others say nay. The experts are also deeply divided over whether Coldplay, Paul McCartney, Neil Young or Gwen Stefani have shots at the top prizes.

Sizing up the contest for album of the year, Chris Willman of Entertainment Weekly says, "If I had to guess who the shoo-ins are, I'd say Mariah, U2 and Kanye West are as sure a bet as anything is in this life -- and maybe Coldplay. Then after that, I'd think Eminem, Springsteen, then possibly Gwen Stefani and longer shot Stevie Wonder."

Adds Dave Bauder of the Associated Press, "The album of the year race could be a fascinating test of how hip the Grammys really are. If they wanted, they could fill this race entirely with older folks -- the Rolling Stones, Paul McCartney, U2 or Stevie Wonder. I don't think that would be terribly wise and I don't think they'll do it.

"I could see a good diva competition in the record or song categories between Mariah Carey, Kelly Clarkson and Gwen Stefani -- maybe leaving room for Green Day or Coldplay to slip in."

Green Day is red hot right now, having recently won seven of eight races at the MTV Music Video Awards, including video of the year. Because of eligibility regulations, however, Green Day can't compete for album of the year at the upcoming Grammys. ("American Idiot" lost last year to Ray Charles' "Genius Loves Company," and the Bay Area punk rockers had to be satisfied with the consolation prize of best rock album.)

But Green Day is considered a slam-dunk to nab a bid for best record this year. For which song? That's the big question. "Boulevard of Broken Dreams" was their standout tune late last year, but it's a faint echo now and, considering that old songs seldom win, Green Day may be better off being hailed for "Wake Me Up When September Ends."

Bill Werde, senior news editor of Billoard, believes Coldplay is a logical bet to land somewhere in the top races because it's "the perfect Grammy band," he says. "It's the Grammys' idealized version of alternative music. Voters can feel hip and edgy voting for Coldplay while also feeling safe."

But Steve Hochman, a frequent contributor to the Los Angeles Times, disagrees. "Coldplay is a mystery at the Grammys this year," he says. "I think there is a lot of backlash against them. That kind of chip on their shoulder – that they were trying to make a record to beat U2 as opposed to trying just to make a great Coldplay record and let it be what it is."

Speaking of U2, the Irish rockers seem to be automatic top nominees every year, sometimes even automatic winners. Given Grammy voters' notorious love of veterans, most experts believe U2 will do well again.

Those same pundits aren't certain about the fate of other old pros.

Hochman thinks Paul McCartney and the Rolling Stones could play starring roles, but he has an even stronger hunch about Neil Young. "Right now I think Neil Young has an edge," he says. "The album is part of his Harvest trilogy, it comes after his stroke and his father's death. The album is a sort of biographical life summary, the kind of thing Grammy voters love."

Since Kanye West behaved himself far better at the last Grammys than he did at the previous American Music Awards, when he lost best new artist, he'll be invited back. And considering the 24-karat year he's had on the charts, he should be well-positioned to nab leading gold gramophones.

"But it will be interesting to see if Grammy voters are tentative because of his politics," says Billboard's Werde. "Obviously, he whipped up a real storm at the fundraiser for Hurricane Katrina victims, but I don't know how Grammy voters reacted to that."

"Voters must acknowledge Kanye in the top categories," insists EW's Willman, who believes the rapper's best shot comes in the Best Album category. Werde, however, claims Kanye's best bet is with his single "Golddigger" in the Record of the Year race, adding, "I don't know if there is a catchier or more prominent song out."

But it may all come back to Mariah Carey and "Mimi."

"I have a feeling that the alpha and omega of this year's Grammys is going to be 'Mimi'," Werde says. "It is Mariah Carey's year in terms of success and in terms of it being a very safe record for Grammy voters to get behind. Grammy voters always love commercial success and Mariah's record has had the most -- whether you are talking radio play or you are talking about sales."

"The popularity of it makes it hard to ignore," Hochman concedes. "But at the same time I don't think simply being very popular means that it necessarily fits the criteria for a Grammy."

Willman pooh-poohs it in even stronger terms: "It wouldn't be the Grammys' proudest moment if Mariah swept."

Carey did get shut out of the MTV Music Video Awards. However, "Mimi" has the most noms heading into the American Music Awards, to be held on Nov. 22.

If there's a clear leader in the best new artist race, AP's Bauder says it's likely John Legend. "He's my early line favorite -- he's the real deal." But don't count out the likes of My Chemical Romance, Death Cab for Cutie, Daddy Yankee and even Sugarland.