Emmy underdogs

The lazy way to win an Emmy Awards pool is to study expert predictions and go with all the favorites.

But what's the fun in filling out a bracket that's nothing but "The Sopranos," the stars of "The Sopranos," the writers of "The Sopranos" and Kelsey Grammer (doesn't he always win, even if he doesn't have a show on the air)? Isn't it more worthwhile to root for contenders who really deserve a shot?

Here are a few nominees who probably won't -- but, based on their work -- really should take home an Emmy. If you pick them and they lose, you run the risk of looking foolish. But if you pick them because you think they're worthy and they win? You're the resident genius at your Emmy party, complete with all the attendant laurels.

These no-guts-no-glory underdogs are listed in order of plausibility.

Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series
Likely winner: Anybody's guess
But why not bet on: Masi Oka, "Heroes"

Terry O'Quinn has the category's best performance, Michael Imperioli has the collective weight of "Sopranos" nostalgia, T.R. Knight has a tremendously sympathetic back story, and William Shatner is William Shatner, so why would you pick anybody else?

Oka went into the Golden Globes as the soft-spot favorite for awards prognosticators, but lost to Jeremy Irons for "Elizabeth I," so perhaps some of his sheen is off. That's why Oka is suddenly an interesting post-hype pick. Not only is this a good chance for the TV Academy to honor "Heroes" in a major category, but Oka's submission episode, "Five Years Gone," was one of the series' standouts, with Oka playing two very different versions of his character.

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Outstanding writing for a drama series
Likely winner: Something from "The Sopranos"
But why not bet on: Damon Lindelof and Carlton Cuse for the "Through the Looking Glass" episode of "Lost"

Three of the five nominees in this category come from three of the final four episodes of "The Sopranos," possibly the most scrutinized episodes of any television show in history. If you assume that as many people hated David Chase's "Sopranos" finale as loved it (put me in the latter camp), how will voters choose between "The Second Coming" (the episode likely to win James Gandolfini his Emmy) and "Kennedy and Heidi" (a confusingly titled episode that started with the death of a beloved character)? Left unable to choose, voters may recognize the brain-cramping, head-scratching, structure-bending season finale of "Lost," an episode that took everything fans thought they knew about the show and turned it upside-down.